Australia Set for Consecutive Half-Point Interest Rate Hikes

Bloomberg2022-06-14

19 of 24 economists see a half-point increase in July to 1.35%Goldman forecasts cash rate will reach 2.6% by end of the yearPhilip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.Photographer: Brent ...

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Cl11
2022-06-14
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They have been revising up their forecasts following Governor Philip Lowe’s bigger-than-expected hike last week.Lowe is scheduled to speak in an interview with Australian Broadcasting Corp. television at 7:30 p.m. Sydney time Tuesday, in his first public appearance since last week’s rate hike.The RBA is among more than 50 monetary authorities to have raised rates by at least a half-point in one move this year. Australia’s power prices are soaring and labor costs are also pushing higher, exacerbating offshore pressures from Russia’s war on Ukraine and China’s virus lockdowns.Goldman Sachs Inc., which correctly predicted last week’s 50-basis-point rate increase, is among those forecasting the RBA will follow up with another half-point hike in July and keep raising the benchmark to 2.6% by year’s end.“We view risks as skewed to an even faster pace of tightening, including a material risk of an additional 50-basis-point hike in August,” said Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman in Australia.“While this represents a rapid policy tightening over the coming year, our recent analysis suggests the Australian economy will be able to absorb materially higher interest rates in the near-term,” he said.To date, firms have managed to cope with rising costs, though a private survey by National Australia Bank Ltd. released on Tuesday showed sentiment easing.It also highlighted price pressures were increasing in May with retail inflation jumping to 3.1% in quarterly terms, suggesting another high inflation reading for the three months through June.“The economy has maintained its momentum,” said Alan Oster, chief economist at NAB. “Most businesses are in a strong position despite the inflation headwinds, with the lift-off in official interest rates and global growth risks yet to significantly impact Australia’s economic trajectory.”The nation’s heavily indebted households, however, are feeling less upbeat as higher mortgage repayments and surging prices squeeze their budgets.Concerns that consumers will crimp spending in response to policy tightening have prompted some economists to predict rate cuts later next year.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9052735781,"gmtCreate":1655211068643,"gmtModify":1676535584035,"author":{"id":"4106966283834260","authorId":"4106966283834260","name":"Cl11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f5a8d86528fc0c33ba930c437756fd9","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052735781","repostId":1157222414,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1157222414"}