Orient Securities has released a research report stating that quantum computers have surpassed the error-correction threshold, bringing the development of fault-tolerant quantum computing closer and accelerating the commercialization process. Policy support for new productive forces such as quantum computing is expected to unlock greater market potential and drive performance growth. The firm recommends that investors focus on targets in upstream core equipment and components, midstream integrated systems and platforms, and downstream application security. The main points of Orient Securities are as follows:
Quantum computing is a new computational paradigm based on quantum mechanics principles, emerging against the backdrop of slowing performance improvements in classical computing and surging demand for computational power. By leveraging quantum superposition and entanglement to process information in parallel at the physical level, quantum computing can significantly reduce computational complexity for specific problems. For example, in tasks such as unstructured search, quantum algorithms can explore vast solution spaces in parallel, requiring far fewer steps than classical algorithms. It is important to emphasize that quantum computing does not represent a wholesale replacement for classical computing but is better suited for specific domains such as combinatorial optimization, search, and simulation. It will serve as an extension and complement to existing computing systems. In the foreseeable future, quantum computing will operate in a hybrid "quantum-classical" mode for an extended period, with classical computing continuing to handle tasks such as result readout, error correction, and parameter optimization.
Currently, multiple technological pathways for realizing quantum computing are advancing in parallel, primarily including superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, and photonic quantum computing. Each approach has distinct characteristics in terms of physical principles and engineering implementation. Superconducting systems operate at millikelvin temperatures, offering fast gate operations and relatively mature control technologies. Ion trap and neutral atom schemes use ions or atoms as qubit carriers, benefiting from long coherence times, but they rely on high-precision laser control and ultra-high vacuum environments, resulting in slower single-operation speeds. Photonic quantum computing utilizes photons as qubits, with potential advantages for room-temperature operation and long-distance transmission, though it demands precise optical components and is still exploring scalable integration solutions.
Progress in quantum computing has accelerated, with significant improvements in quantum supremacy and error correction capabilities in recent years. Companies such as Google and IBM have made notable strides, laying a solid foundation for the scaling and practical application of quantum computing. Domestically, China's "Zuchongzhi-3" and "Jiuzhang" series of quantum computers have also achieved significant breakthroughs, paving the way toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. Furthermore, the integration of quantum and classical computing is deepening, supporting performance enhancement, ecosystem development, and future commercialization. Leading firms like Google have outlined ambitious quantum computing roadmaps, aiming to achieve commercially viable quantum computing around 2030.
Major countries worldwide are formulating quantum technology strategies and making substantial investments. The United States initiated a federal quantum research and development program through the National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018, later strengthening quantum network and standards development under the CHIPS and Science Act, and designating quantum technology as a national security priority through export controls and investment screening. Europe has launched the Quantum Flagship program, coordinated by the EU to advance quantum technology sovereignty. China has incorporated quantum computing into its major national science and technology projects, accelerating the industrialization of research outcomes through local industrial funds and talent development initiatives.
Currently, the quantum computing industry is in the early stages of commercialization. The focus remains on the development of research-grade integrated systems and key components, with industry revenue primarily driven by government and research institution demand. The importance of upstream hardware and control systems currently far exceeds that of downstream applications. Global tech giants and startups are actively positioning themselves across the industry chain: IBM and Google are leading in quantum computing R&D, while domestic companies such as Guodun Quantum, Origin Quantum, and Turing Quantum have also made positive progress in core technology development.
Relevant targets in the midstream integrated system platform segment include Guodun Quantum, as well as Keda Guochuang, which holds a stake in Origin Quantum. Upstream core equipment and component targets include Hexin Instruments, Rigol Technologies, Western Superconducting, and Tengjing Technology. Downstream application security companies include Jida ZhengYuan, Sanwei Information Security, InfoSec Century, and Geer Software.
Risks include potential delays in technological development and uncertainties related to shifts in technology pathways.
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