Solar Power Capacity Projected to Surpass Coal for First Time by 2026

According to a report released by the China Electricity Council on April 28, the power industry demonstrated four key characteristics during the first quarter: rising consumption, optimized structure, innovative investment, and reliable supply. The sector maintained safe and stable operations, with electricity demand showing steady growth and the power supply continuing its transition toward green and low-carbon development.

The report indicated that national electricity consumption reached 2.51 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. By the end of March, total installed power generation capacity stood at 3.96 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 2.46 billion kilowatts—a 21.3% rise from the previous year, representing 62.0% of total capacity. During the quarter, wind and solar power together added 57.16 million kilowatts of new capacity, accounting for 68.2% of all newly installed power generation capacity, underscoring the ongoing shift toward green energy.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts that China's macroeconomy will maintain stable growth in 2026, driving steady and relatively fast growth in electricity demand. New infrastructure construction is expected to spur rapid electricity consumption in related sectors. National electricity consumption is projected to reach 10.9–11 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2026, an increase of 5%–6% year-on-year, with second-quarter growth estimated at around 5%. Peak regulated load for the year is expected to be between 1.57 and 1.63 billion kilowatts.

Total newly installed power generation capacity for the full year is projected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, of which new energy installations are expected to surpass 300 million kilowatts. National installed power capacity is forecast to exceed 4 billion kilowatts in the second quarter. By the end of 2026, solar power capacity is anticipated to exceed coal power capacity for the first time, while combined wind and solar capacity is expected to account for half of the total installed power generation capacity.