Global LNG trading leader Shell PLC has forecast that worldwide liquefied natural gas demand could increase by 54% to 68% by 2040 compared to 2025 levels of 422 million tons, with further growth of 45% to 85% anticipated by 2050, driven primarily by sustained demand expansion in Asia. The company had previously projected annual LNG demand reaching 630 to 718 million tons by 2040 one year ago. In its latest update, Shell narrowed the 2040 forecast range to 650–710 million tons per year and provided its first 2050 demand estimate of 610–780 million tons annually. The energy giant also plans to increase its LNG sales volumes by 4% to 5% each year.
Shell noted that due to disruptive impacts on international oil and LNG trade resulting from conflicts in the Middle East, Monday’s projections should be considered preliminary. At Shell’s 2025 annual general meeting, a resolution filed by climate-focused investor ACCR together with other shareholders managing $86 billion in assets received approximately 21% support. The proposal challenged Shell’s LNG demand outlook. Shareholders including Brunel Pension Partnership, Greater Manchester Pension Fund, and Merseyside Pension Fund urged the company to clarify how its LNG growth assumptions align with global energy needs and explain its pathway to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
In response, Shell defended its LNG strategy, describing the super-chilled fuel as a crucial peak-shaving resource in future energy systems and emphasizing the cost and emissions competitiveness of its projects. The company stated that while global natural gas consumption may peak in the 2030s—having already peaked in regions like Europe and Japan—LNG demand is expected to continue growing. By 2040, LNG is projected to account for over half of the overall growth in gas demand, with Asia contributing 70% of that increase.
ACCR’s Head of Oil and Gas Strategy, Nick Mazan, commented that Shell’s statements did not adequately address how LNG will compete with renewables and other energy sources on price and emissions. He warned that geopolitical crises triggering sharp LNG price increases could suppress demand.
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