From October 20-22, by the banks of Shanghai's Huangpu River, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference returns once again. Nobel and Turing Award winners will take the stage to discuss the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professor who "rescues" people from anxiety and involution, Macfarlane, will engage in a live dialogue with Xiang Biao!
Limited seats available, first come first served. Let us journey together toward a sustainable future! [Click to register] Brokerage research reports indicate that foreign investors continue to sell off Korean stocks, with no signs of the selling pressure easing. However, a series of events from the end of this month to mid-November may serve as a turning point for foreign capital to return. The earnings reports of two major memory chip giants, the U.S. midterm elections, changes in the Middle East situation, and the IPO of AI company Anthropic are viewed as core variables that could potentially reverse market sentiment.
Data from the Korea Exchange on the 14th shows that, as of the previous trading day, foreign investors had net sold a cumulative 203.6977 trillion won (approximately $141.5 billion) in the KOSPI main board market this year. Of that, just two stocks — Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — accounted for approximately 176 trillion won in net selling, representing 86% of total foreign selling. Samsung Electronics' foreign ownership ratio fell to an 18-year low not seen since 2008, while SK hynix's foreign ownership rate also dropped below its ten-year average.
This round of foreign capital outflow has been the core driver of the KOSPI index decline. Escalating Middle East geopolitical risks, disputes over OpenAI's annual revenue, and concerns over the rising competitiveness of foreign companies have combined to weigh on the market. On the 13th, the KOSPI intraday low touched 5,911.11 points, falling below the 6,000-point mark for the first time since July 31.
Currently, the market lacks buying support. Retail investors concentrated their net buying in the KOSPI 7,000-8,500 point range, and individual investor losses have deepened as the index declined; retail idle funds have also begun flowing into interest-bearing wealth management products and U.S. stocks. The share buyback programs of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix that previously supported the market have also entered their final phase.
Against this backdrop, analysts are focusing on the timing of foreign capital return. Hyundai Motor Securities analyst Kim Jae-seung said in a research report that day: "The KOSPI has already fallen to the 6,000-point level. At this point, we should be thinking about what catalysts could attract foreign capital back, rather than dwelling on the reasons for continued foreign net selling."
He proposed four variables that could potentially change the direction of foreign capital flows. First, the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The report notes that U.S. stocks typically begin rallying about 20 days before midterm elections; however, this time the Middle East conflict, the possibility of Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress, and Trump-related remarks have further amplified uncertainty. Once the elections conclude, political uncertainty would decline, and foreign investors' appetite for risk assets could recover.
Second, U.S.-Iran negotiations. Hyundai Motor Securities judges that Iran's negotiating leverage peaks before the U.S. midterm elections, and the likelihood of a major agreement between the two countries before the election is relatively high. If a ceasefire plan for the armed conflict emerges, the geopolitical risks weighing on the Korean stock market would ease.
Third, Anthropic's planned IPO in mid-November. Hyundai Motor Securities points out that before SpaceX's IPO in June this year, large U.S. tech stocks and the KOSPI corrected in tandem; before Anthropic's IPO, the market will similarly worry about large-scale capital outflows, weighing on Korean stocks. But after the IPO lands, supply-demand pressure would ease, and market uncertainty about AI companies' profitability would also decrease.
Fourth, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix releasing their earnings reports at the end of this month. Market doubts about whether memory chip profit growth can be sustained are rising, and the chip supply-demand outlook provided by both companies will be crucial. Additional shareholder return plans, such as a new round of share buybacks, could also improve market sentiment.
However, the brokerage cautions that the foreign selling trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Starting from the chip earnings reports at the end of this month, combined with the U.S. midterm elections and Anthropic's IPO, capital flows are expected to gradually improve. Kim Jae-seung stated: "At present, there is no major event visible that could immediately reverse foreign net selling. Don't be swept up by panic sentiment — patiently wait for the turning point."
Comments