Bitcoin is facing mounting pullback pressure, with the core trigger being a surge in short-term traders' unrealized profit margins to a 21-month high.
CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno noted that while the market remains in a broader bull cycle, significantly intensified profit-taking has become a major downside risk.
Data compiled shows that as of September 29, 2026, Bitcoin's price held above its 365-day moving average, with the bull market index scoring 90 out of 100, indicating still-strong fundamentals.
However, after touching an 8-month high of $87,400, the price encountered selling pressure, and short-term unrealized profit margins climbed to 33%, the highest since December 2024.
On September 22, holders realized profits on 25,700 Bitcoin, setting a single-day record for 2026, signaling that investors are locking in gains at elevated levels.
A more critical variable lies in the broad cooling of demand.
Over the past 30 days, apparent spot demand fell by 170,000 Bitcoin, with buying interest lacking.
Futures speculative demand plummeted from 164,000 Bitcoin on September 14 to 16,000 Bitcoin on September 29, as the derivatives engine stalled.
Meanwhile, altcoin selling pressure has emerged: 76,000 exchange inflow transactions occurred within 7 days, involving 51,000 addresses, both the highest since October 17, 2025, and widely distributed rather than concentrated selling.
If a pullback occurs, the market will face a test of three defense lines.
The primary support sits near the 365-day moving average around $80,000; if breached, the 200-day moving average at $71,000 becomes the second barrier; the final floor lies at traders' on-chain realized average price of approximately $67,000.
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