Shanxi Securities released a research report stating that lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), a key electrolyte material, directly impacts battery energy density, fast-charging performance, and safety. As of November 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices surged to CNY 160,000 per ton, tripling from the July 2025 low of CNY 50,000 per ton. Supply tightness may persist until 2026, with further price upside potential.
Beyond LiPF6, booming energy storage demand has also driven up prices for VC (vinylene carbonate), a critical electrolyte additive. New VC capacity takes about 12 months to build, while restarting idle production lines requires 3–4 months, making short-term supply gaps difficult to fill.
Key insights from Shanxi Securities: 1. **LiPF6 Market Dynamics**: - **Demand**: Rapid growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage has significantly increased procurement by electrolyte manufacturers. - **Supply**: While leading producers operate at full capacity, many smaller firms struggle to resume operations due to prior industry overcapacity. Tight supply is expected to continue, supporting prices.
2. **VC Market Outlook**: - Current VC prices rose to CNY 60,000 per ton, up over 30% from lows. - High barriers to entry and years of industry losses have deterred aggressive capacity expansion. - Given VC’s low cost share in batteries and irreplaceability, battery makers show higher price tolerance. Prices may average CNY 100,000 per ton in 2026.
**Stock Recommendations**: - **LiPF6-related**: Tianji Materials (002759.SZ), Tinci Materials (002709.SZ), Capchem (300037.SZ), Shenzhen Xinning (603978.SH), Do-Fluoride (002407.SZ). - **VC-related**: Huasheng Lithium (688353.SH), Haike New Materials (301292.SZ), Lianhetech, Taihe Technology (300801.SZ).
**Risks**: Volatile raw material costs, policy changes, slower-than-expected tech advancements, and intensified competition.
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