U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Wednesday, February 11th, ahead of the market open. At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures advanced 0.11%.
In European markets, Germany's DAX index fell 0.13%, while Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.70%. France's CAC 40 declined 0.19%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.15%.
Oil prices climbed, with WTI crude rising 2.17% to $65.35 per barrel. Brent crude increased 2.09% to $70.24 per barrel.
The highly anticipated U.S. January nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight, Beijing time. Market consensus expects job additions to rise to 70,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Annual wage growth is anticipated to cool. While job growth may have accelerated slightly, supported by reduced layoffs in some seasonal sectors, the labor market remains soft due to hiring constraints from ongoing import tariff policy uncertainty and tighter immigration enforcement limiting labor supply.
Notably, beyond the standard monthly figures, the January report will include the much-anticipated annual benchmark revision. Preliminary estimates suggest a record downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period ending March 2025, indicating a significant slowdown in employment growth.
Some investors are speculating that weak employment data could paradoxically benefit the stock market, as it might signal potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to support the economy. Veteran strategist Jim Paulsen noted that, historically, a deteriorating job market has sometimes been favorable for equities, as investors anticipate policy stimulus leading to an economic recovery and higher stock prices. However, he cautioned that the S&P 500 is currently near record highs, unlike past periods of labor market cooling which often followed market sell-offs driven by economic concerns.
Anxiety over AI disruption is intensifying on Wall Street. Stocks of companies perceived as vulnerable to AI-driven changes, from small software firms to large wealth managers, are facing sustained pressure. As significant AI investments translate into commercial products, fears of industry-wide upheaval are growing. A fund manager noted that any company with potential disruption risk is being sold indiscriminately. While AI firms are making inroads, particularly in software engineering, the ultimate impact of the technology remains uncertain.
Traders are scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now largely betting on only two or three reductions this year. This represents a more conservative stance compared to earlier positions taken after recent Fed Chair nominee news. Options market activity shows strong demand for structures that would profit from a scenario of two or three 25-basis-point cuts by 2026.
Gold and silver prices surged. Spot gold rose over 1% to $5,102 per ounce, while spot silver jumped more than 6% to $86 per ounce. The nonfarm payrolls report is expected to indirectly influence gold's trajectory through its impact on Fed policy expectations. Significantly weaker-than-expected data could strengthen bets on earlier rate cuts, weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices. Conversely, strong data might reinforce expectations of prolonged higher rates, supporting the dollar and pressuring gold.
In corporate news, activist fund Ancora Holdings Group has built a stake in Warner Bros. Discovery and plans to oppose the company's recently announced deal to sell its film/TV studio and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix, adding uncertainty to the major Hollywood acquisition.
Shopify reported a strong fourth quarter, with revenue surging 30.6% year-over-year to $3.67 billion, exceeding expectations. Its stock rose over 10% in premarket trading.
Cloudflare's fourth-quarter revenue jumped 34% to $614.5 million, beating estimates, driven by AI-related workflow demand. Its shares surged over 14% premarket.
Ford Motor reported a decline in fourth-quarter revenue and missed earnings per share estimates, partly due to an unexpected tariff change that cost it around $900 million in anticipated savings. Despite challenges, the company forecast a strong profit rebound for 2026. Its stock was up over 2% premarket.
Astera Labs reported fourth-quarter revenue that grew 92% to $271 million but fell short of some lofty analyst expectations, leading to a premarket stock drop of over 12%.
Total SA's fourth-quarter profit missed expectations despite a sharp rise in refining margins, prompting the company to announce a smaller share buyback program.
Lyft reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed estimates and provided soft first-quarter guidance amid its strategic shift towards autonomous vehicle technology, causing its shares to fall over 17% premarket.
Robinhood hit a record for total revenue in the fourth quarter, but results were dampened by a decline in crypto trading revenue. Its stock fell over 7% premarket.
Moderna's shares dropped over 10% premarket after the U.S. FDA refused to accept its application for a flu vaccine, citing issues with the trial's control group.
Key economic data and events scheduled for later include the U.S. January nonfarm payrolls report at 9:30 PM Beijing Time, speeches from Fed officials, and the U.S. February IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
Earnings previews for Thursday morning include reports from Cisco, Applovin, Confluent, McDonald's, and Albemarle.
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