Copper prices extended their losses as market concerns over the global inflation outlook deepened, putting broad pressure on industrial commodities. U.S.-Iran negotiations have stalled again, intensifying an already fragile geopolitical landscape. U.S. President Trump renewed threats against Iran, with significant differences remaining between the two sides over an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. Since the ceasefire in early April, negotiations concerning nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have failed to achieve substantive breakthroughs. On May 12, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson clearly stated that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are prerequisites for any talks with the United States, accusing the U.S. of demanding Iran's "complete surrender" rather than genuine dialogue. The same day, Iranian parliamentary officials warned that if the country is attacked again, it may raise uranium enrichment levels to 90%, approaching weapons-grade. The ongoing stalemate continues to drive up energy prices. On May 10, Iran submitted a 14-point counter-proposal through mediator Pakistan, demanding the U.S. revoke all sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports within 30 days and refusing to dismantle nuclear facilities. Trump promptly criticized the Iranian response on social media as "completely unacceptable," causing international oil prices to once again rise above $100 per barrel. The latest news on May 18 indicates that Trump is "growing increasingly impatient" with the negotiations, and the U.S. Department of Defense has prepared a series of military strike plans, including precision strikes targeting Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure. Analysts point out that the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is transmitting global inflationary pressure through two channels: first, the upward shift in oil price benchmarks directly increases energy costs; second, overseas freight rates and prices for raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid have risen significantly, pressuring industrial enterprises from the cost side. Consequently, markets further anticipate that major central banks will have to maintain a tightening stance to curb inflation, which could weigh on global economic growth and suppress manufacturing demand—posing a bearish outlook for industrial metals like copper that are dependent on the economic cycle. Copper prices fell as much as 1.2% to $13,394.50 per ton in early Asian trading, following a cumulative decline of over 4% from the record high closing price set on Wednesday over the previous two sessions. As of the latest update, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper was quoted at $13,493 per ton, down 0.39%; zinc fell 0.5%, while aluminum edged lower. Despite short-term pressure, copper prices have still gained nearly 9% year-to-date. Recent analysis suggests that as the U.S.-Iran conflict normalizes, the non-ferrous metals market will gradually return to pricing based on supply and demand fundamentals. Persistent disruptions in copper mine supply and rigid demand from sectors like power grid construction and semiconductors are expected to provide some support for prices. Meanwhile, the renewed rise in overseas inflation expectations has also fueled anticipation of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for macro-level pressures to dissipate in the short term. The direction of copper prices currently depends heavily on multiple variables, and whether Middle East geopolitical risks continue to evolve will be closely linked to it. In a market environment intertwined with uncertainty, copper prices are expected to maintain a pattern of high volatility.
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