A review of the market on April 23rd reveals a mixed performance across major commodity sectors, characterized by strength in chemicals, weakness in non-ferrous metals, and a split trend in agricultural products.
On April 23, 2026, global commodity markets experienced renewed volatility. Influenced by fluctuating Middle East tensions, stalled US-Iran negotiations, and divergent monetary policies among major economies, the market displayed a clear pattern of "energy volatility, metal divergence, and gold resilience."
Geopolitical risks have increased the risk premium for energy. Market attention returned to the Strait of Hormuz. With the prospects for an extended US-Iran ceasefire agreement unclear, a geopolitical risk premium was once again factored into crude oil markets. Although the global crude market faces structural oversupply pressures in 2026, Iran's potential impact on key shipping lanes is enough to offset underlying fundamental weakness. The oil sector saw broad gains today, with oil ETFs posting significant increases. In the short term, energy prices will continue to fluctuate between "Strait anxiety" and "production increase expectations," making volatility a constant feature.
In the metals market, demand resilience and policy premiums are key factors. For non-ferrous metals, prices for electrolytic copper and aluminum ingots showed stability. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and industry sources indicate that prices for major means of production have mostly risen since April. As a core driver of global commodity demand, China's needs related to the electric vehicle transition and digital infrastructure construction effectively support the prices of basic metals like copper. Notably, due to maintained US tariffs on certain metals and global competition for "technological sovereignty" over critical minerals, metal prices are increasingly influenced by deeper policy premiums beyond simple supply and demand dynamics.
Safe-haven sentiment is locking in a premium for gold. Against a backdrop of persistent global inflationary pressures—particularly with US core CPI remaining above target—and increasing geopolitical fragmentation, gold's status as the "ultimate safe-haven asset" remains unshaken. Although the price of gold experiences significant volatility on its upward path, a combination of central bank purchasing trends and investor safe-haven demand provides support.
Looking ahead from the second quarter of 2026, global commodities have entered a "post-pandemic, high-geopolitical" era. Simple capacity analysis is no longer sufficient to explain price fluctuations; trade barriers, the pace of the energy transition, and unforeseen geopolitical events now collectively form a new pricing function. For investors and related industries, identifying certainty within an uncertain geopolitical environment will be a core research focus in the coming months.
Technical Assessment: Overall Commodity Trend: Mixed/Choppy. Strongest Sectors: Crude oil, Chemicals (Bullish); Precious Metals, Agricultural By-products (Bearish). Strongest Individual Commodities: High/Low Sulfur Fuel Oil, PTA (Bullish); Palladium, Shanghai Silver, Apple (Bearish). Conclusion: The market is turbulent. A strategy of observing more and acting less is advised, with attention on potential bearish trends in Apple.
Global Context: The extension of the Trump ceasefire agreement until April 26th maintains uncertainty in the Middle East. Iran's hardline stance keeps volatility high in crude oil markets. During Federal Reserve hearings, Warsh avoided commenting on independence concerns, leaving monetary policy outlook unclear. Combined geopolitical and policy disturbances are causing precious and base metals to continue their choppy trend, while the crude oil and chemical sector experiences heightened volatility due to the situation, resulting in an overall divergent picture for global commodities.
I. Core Trading Varieties and Strategy Execution Soybean No.1: The price rally reached the target zone. The trend position realized a 15% profit. A partial profit-taking strategy was executed (half or one-third of the position), with an alternative full exit suggested for those with lower risk tolerance. Rubber: Maintains a strengthening trend and remains a key focus for tracking. Crude Oil/Chemicals Sector (Xylene, PTA, etc.): Showed strong, choppy upward movement in the morning session, followed by a pullback from highs in the afternoon, continuing the overall strong, volatile trend. The bullish trend assessment is maintained. Precious Metals, Non-ferrous Metals, and New Energy Sectors: Continued a weak, choppy trend. The afternoon rebound lacked strength. The assessment of a choppy downtrend is maintained, with no participation advised for now.
II. Overall Trading Results Soybean No.1 Trend Position: Successfully realized a 15% profit. Staggered profit-taking secured partial gains, effectively locking in returns. Position Management: Total exposure was adjusted from an initial 100% down to 66% through profit-taking, reducing overall risk exposure while retaining some position to follow subsequent market movements. Risk Control: Stop-loss levels were maintained throughout (around 4795-4840), with flexible exit suggestions provided, balancing trend continuation with capital preservation.
III. Review and Reflection Strategy Execution: The profit-taking operation for Soybean No.1 adhered to the "staggered exit" principle of trend trading, securing profits while maintaining exposure to potential further moves, thus balancing returns with flexibility. Market Assessment: The pattern of chemicals leading gains in the morning followed by an afternoon pullback reflects insufficient trend momentum in the current market. A risk control strategy of "observe more, act less" is appropriate in this choppy environment. Sector Divergence: Different sectors showed clearly divergent performances—chemicals were relatively strong, while metals/precious metals were weak. Operations must strictly distinguish between trending and range-bound varieties to avoid盲目 following the crowd. Risk Warning: Uncertainty in the Middle East remains a primary disruptive factor for crude oil contracts. High-volatility varieties require strict control over position size and entry timing, advocating patience for clearer signals.
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