Abstract
Bilibili Inc. will report fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 unaudited results on March 5, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview details revenue, margin and EPS expectations, last quarter’s performance, key segment dynamics, and prevailing analyst sentiment into the print.Market Forecast
Consensus anchored on Bilibili Inc.’s latest projections points to revenue of $8.13 billion for the current quarter, implying 6.48% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS around $1.80, up 88.76% year over year; EBIT is projected at $0.47 billion, suggesting 338.12% year-over-year growth. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin have not been disclosed, so the market will focus on whether margin expansion from recent quarters can be sustained alongside this revenue trajectory.The principal revenue drivers remain the core monetization pillars—live broadcasting and value-added services, online advertising, mobile games, and IP derivatives and other services—supported by stable user engagement and product monetization improvements. Among these, online advertising stands out as the most promising growth lever into the quarter; last quarter it contributed $2.57 billion, and with the projected step-up in earnings and EBIT for the current quarter, investors are watching for advertising’s incremental margin contribution to confirm operating leverage.
Last Quarter Review
Bilibili Inc. delivered revenue of $7.69 billion in the previous quarter, with a gross profit margin of 36.67%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.47 billion, a net profit margin of 6.12%, and adjusted EPS of $1.89, up 231.58% year over year, while revenue rose 5.20% year over year and EBIT reached $0.35 billion, up 630.82% year over year. A notable financial highlight was profitability acceleration: net profit improved quarter-on-quarter by 114.71%, underscoring rising operating leverage and cost discipline.Main business contributions were well balanced: live broadcasting and value-added services generated $3.02 billion, advertising delivered $2.57 billion, mobile games added $1.51 billion, and IP derivatives and other services contributed $0.58 billion, together summing to $7.69 billion and reinforcing a diversified monetization mix.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Live broadcasting and value-added services
Live broadcasting and value-added services remain a central earnings engine for Bilibili Inc., contributing $3.02 billion last quarter and typically showing high engagement-driven monetization through subscriptions, premium memberships, and gifting. The segment’s contribution to gross profit tends to be supported by a relatively stable cost base tied to platform operations and revenue sharing, which, when allocated efficiently, can keep gross margin resilient. With the company’s adjusted EPS estimate at $1.80 and EBIT projected at $0.47 billion this quarter, the market will be watching whether user activity and monetization per user within this segment hold up sufficiently to sustain the margin profile seen in the last quarter’s 36.67% gross margin.Operationally, the most impactful swing factors for live and value-added services are the breadth and cadence of high-profile live events, community engagement, and the stickiness of paid memberships. In recent months, Bilibili Inc.’s platform has continued to draw high levels of user participation around significant programming, which helps keep live-gifting and premium memberships robust. While the upcoming report is for the quarter that covered the year-end period, investors will still parse commentary on consumption trends and paying-user behavior to judge whether last quarter’s monetization expansion is structural. A stable or improving take rate in this segment would offer a helpful cushion for EBITDA and earnings, especially as the company aims to consolidate recent profitability improvements.
The leverage from live services to earnings will be closely tied to content spending discipline and revenue-sharing mechanics. A more favorable mix toward recurring value-added subscriptions and higher-margin formats could provide incremental support to EBIT, aligning with the current quarter’s projected 338.12% year-over-year EBIT growth. If management indicates that paid engagement maintained momentum through the end-of-year period, that would reinforce confidence in this segment’s ability to underpin both revenue and margins as growth continues.
Most promising business: Online advertising
Online advertising is positioned as the most promising near-term growth driver for Bilibili Inc., after contributing $2.57 billion in the last reported quarter and benefiting from improving ad loads and better commercial product coverage across the platform’s content ecosystem. The company’s forecasts—$8.13 billion in revenue and a projected 88.76% year-over-year rise in adjusted EPS for the current quarter—suggest that monetization through advertising could carry a meaningful share of incremental operating leverage. If pricing, fill rates, and conversion efficiency improved through the final months of the calendar year, advertising’s contribution to EBIT should be visible in the upcoming results.A key lens for investors is how brand and performance budgets translated into revenue and how that revenue flowed through to margins. Advertisers typically seek high-intent and high-engagement inventory, and Bilibili Inc.’s format innovation and campaign solutions can raise yield when aligned with diverse content categories. This cycle, the trend to improved earnings suggests that advertising may have delivered higher incremental margins than certain other lines, particularly if the platform achieved better targeting efficacy and reduced friction in ad product execution. The market will also look for commentary on advertiser categories that performed well and how the company plans to retain these gains into the new year.
Beyond the quarter, sustained advertising strength will likely hinge on content breadth and user time spent, both of which influence inventory and pricing. While the period being reported ended in December, platform-wide events that have drawn strong audience engagement during early 2026 reinforce the idea that advertiser demand for exposure within Bilibili Inc.’s ecosystem can remain constructive. For the immediate print, a solid advertising outturn would validate the revenue mix shift implied by the earnings estimates and present a clear pathway to maintain or improve the net profit margin from the last quarter’s 6.12%.
Stock price sensitivity this quarter: revenue quality, margin durability, and guidance color
Into the report, the share price is likely to be most sensitive to the composition and quality of the anticipated revenue step-up from $7.69 billion last quarter to the current quarter’s $8.13 billion estimate, as well as evidence that margins are improving in a repeatable way. On margins, last quarter’s 36.67% gross margin and 6.12% net margin provide a baseline; investors will scrutinize whether gross profit expands in line with revenue growth and whether opex scaling and marketing efficiency protect or widen the net margin. Given the forecasted 338.12% year-over-year rise in EBIT and the 88.76% year-over-year EPS increase, the print could be a validation moment for improved operating leverage if realized.The second swing factor is performance within mobile games, which contributed $1.51 billion last quarter. While not flagged as the main growth driver this quarter, it remains material to the revenue mix and can produce variability when release slates and lifecycle dynamics ebb and flow. Even stable contributions from games can be margin-accretive when platform distribution and community engagement remain healthy. That said, investors will be watching for management commentary on the medium-term release pipeline and monetization cadence, as this informs the sustainability of incremental EBIT and EPS beyond a single quarter’s print.
Finally, guidance granularity may shape how the market extrapolates beyond the reported quarter. Commentary on content investments, advertising roadmap, and user monetization strategies will help investors calibrate whether the current quarter’s revenue estimate of $8.13 billion and the sharp year-over-year gains in profitability are momentum-driven or reflect structural improvements. If management signals that spend discipline and monetization enhancements can hold, that would support a stronger case for durability in the net margin and adjusted EPS trajectory. Conversely, if operating expense reinvestment steps up faster than revenue growth, the market may temper near-term multiple expansion even if top-line results meet expectations.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent sell-side commentary available in the year-to-date window is bullish. Among the opinions identified since January, 100% are constructive on Bilibili Inc.: Aletheia Capital maintained a Buy rating in early January 2026 when the shares were trading near $29.75, underscoring a favorable stance into the results. With the company’s quarter-on-quarter earnings momentum evidenced by the prior period’s profitability acceleration and with the current quarter’s forecasts pointing to a 6.48% year-over-year revenue increase, an 88.76% year-over-year rise in adjusted EPS, and a 338.12% year-over-year gain in EBIT, the positive skew from the buy-side of the street appears grounded in expectations of continued operating leverage.From an earnings-structure perspective, the bullish view emphasizes two pillars. First, advertising monetization is expected to contribute a larger share of incremental profit as the company optimizes inventory and strengthens conversion for both brand and performance campaigns. This can amplify margins if revenue growth leans toward higher-yield formats, supporting EBIT beyond the proportional rise in top line. Second, the contribution from live broadcasting and value-added services has been consistent, and as long as user engagement remains resilient, the monetization of premium experiences and in-platform gifting can sustain gross profit at levels that reinforce adjusted EPS. Buy-rated analysts are, therefore, looking for confirmation that this revenue mix and cost structure can deliver sustained profitability rather than a one-off jump.
The bullish majority also points to what would validate their case in the print: revenue at or above the $8.13 billion mark, evidence that gross profit growth keeps pace with revenue, and clear signs that operating expenses are scaling in line with—or below—top-line growth. Guidance that points to disciplined content spending and continued improvements in advertising efficacy would strengthen the argument for margin durability beyond the quarter. Put together, these expectations align with the forecasted acceleration in EPS and EBIT, suggesting that if execution matches the projections, Bilibili Inc. could demonstrate a step-change in earnings power that supports the constructive ratings into and after March 5, 2026.
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