On October 27, gold prices moved in a range-bound pattern throughout yesterday's session, oscillating roughly US$20 above and below the US$4,000 mark. The intraday low touched US$3,978, while the evening session peaked at US$4,029, offering short-term profit opportunities on both the long and short sides. Gold ultimately settled at US$4,017, closing the daily chart with a small bullish candle.
Tuesday, October 27, is not a day for "picking a direction" — it is a day for "waiting for the referee to blow the whistle." The Federal Reserve's door is closed, the market is deliberating inside, and those outside can only speculate. In this kind of market, the most expensive mistake is not misjudging direction, but firing all your bullets before the signal emerges. That stone will not truly drop until tomorrow before dawn.
Currently, the market is almost certain the Fed will "hold steady" this time (around a 90% probability), but what truly keeps bulls from acting is Waller's post-meeting remarks. Market pricing for a December rate hike has already risen to around 90%. If Waller hints during the press conference that "inflation is not yet tamed and December will require action," the US dollar and Treasury yields could surge again at any moment, forcing gold to retest lower support levels. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering near 5%, and the opportunity cost of holding gold is right there, making a smooth rally genuinely difficult for gold prices.
Suffice it to say, these two days are not the time to overextend — just play a short-term range. Technically, gold basically oscillated between US$4,030 and US$3,990 yesterday, and the hourly chart structure has also formed a sideways range. If this sideways state extends through the Fed's rate decision on Thursday, there will be room in both directions, with suitable participation opportunities whether a hike happens or not. However, if today or tomorrow the price breaks out of this range, it could mean the rate decision has been front-run, which would significantly impact short-term trading operations.
Intraday, gold is still expected to continue oscillating within its range. On the upside, watch short-term resistance near US$4,025-30, with stronger resistance continuing at the US$4,050-60 zone. On the downside, watch the US$4,000 psychological level, though a brief breach is permissible — the key battleground is the US$3,990-80 area. Broadly speaking, today and tomorrow are still expected to see oscillation around the US$4,000 mark.
In summary, before the Fed meeting in the early hours of Thursday, large capital is cautious, and this narrow range-bound movement is a classic "waiting for news" pattern. Do not gamble on a breakout direction — in this kind of environment, chasing rallies and selling dips is the quickest way to get hit on both sides. Once the Fed hurdle is cleared, direction will naturally become clear. What needs to be done today is simply not to exhaust all your ammunition within the range. In trading, we aim for steady, long-term gains, not a single bet to determine victory or defeat. Wishing everyone a smooth day — feel free to reach out anytime if things change.
For intraday operations, the recommendation is: Gold: Trade within the US$3,970-4,050 range, with a US$10 stop-loss and a US$50-40 take-profit.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 — 20:15 US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending October 10; 20:30 US September durable goods orders month-over-month; 21:00 US August FHFA house price index month-over-month; 21:00 US August S&P/CS 20-city composite house price index year-over-year; 22:00 US September new home sales annualized; 22:00 US October Conference Board consumer confidence index; 22:00 US October Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this information do so at their own risk.
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