Market Overview: On August 5, news emerged that "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos reported a shift in US Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy reaction function, moving away from its earlier dovish stance. His recent comments suggest the Federal Reserve should maintain current interest rates.
Earlier this year, Bessent cited models indicating the Fed's rate could be 25 to over 100 basis points above the neutral rate. On August 4, he made two key points. First, he defended Walsh's decision last week not to outline any specific policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open-ended, and market participants should make their own judgments... Walsh wants to preserve flexibility to achieve the best outcome." Second, he proposed a potentially dovish reaction function, arguing that short-term shocks should be ignored: "What will the impact of higher short-term rates actually be? We'll have to wait and see." He posed the question but then countered by noting that core inflation is "very mild... very stable." "When you strip out volatile energy-related components, the remaining core inflation has been very steady. I expect this trend to continue."
Gold Market Analysis: Gold is oscillating while awaiting geopolitical developments, reaching a high near our third resistance level of 4095. Attention is now turning to the impact of Friday's non-farm payroll data. On the technical side, the daily chart for spot gold (London gold) showed a small bearish candlestick, with the Bollinger Bands contracting, suggesting the price is about to choose a new direction. The KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross, and the MACD line is above the signal line, but the red momentum bars are gradually converging. The broader trend remains bullish, while the medium-term trend is experiencing a phase of decline. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, the KDJ indicator is expanding with a golden cross, and the MACD has formed a golden cross. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, the KDJ indicator is expanding with a golden cross, and the MACD line is above the signal line with the red momentum bars diverging. After a corrective pullback, the short-term focus is on a potential rebound. The downside support levels are at 4068, 4042, and 4020, while the upside resistance levels are at 4095, 4102, and 4120. For Shanghai Gold, the key resistance is at 895 and 900, with support at 888 and 878.
Silver Market Analysis: For spot silver (London silver), the broader trend is one of wide-range consolidation, with a medium-term downward phase. After a brief corrective rebound, the price has resumed its decline. The short-term focus is on this continued pullback, with resistance at 60.9 and 63.1, and support at 57 and 54.7. For Shanghai Silver, the trading range is expected to be between 14,250 and 14,900, with a wider range of 13,830 to 15,450.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.
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