Aviation Stocks Defy Market Downtrend as U.S.-Iran Talks Trigger Sharp Drop in Global Oil Prices; Analyst Notes Sustained Growth in Air Travel Demand

Stock News05-26

Aviation stocks rose against the broader market trend. At the time of writing, CHINA EAST AIR (00670) gained 4.66% to HK$3.82. CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) increased by 3.91% to HK$3.99. AIR CHINA (00753) advanced 3.16% to HK$4.90. CATHAY PAC AIR (00293) rose 1.19% to HK$12.75.

The gains followed ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, with U.S. officials expressing optimism about resolving disputes. On Monday, international oil prices retreated from recent highs, directly alleviating the single largest operating cost burden for airlines. Fuel typically accounts for 25% to 40% of an airline's operating costs.

Analysts point out that the international oil price decline since April 2026 has transmitted to the domestic market, leading to a significant increase in domestic fuel surcharges. Meanwhile, market-based ticket pricing mechanisms ensure ample room for base fare increases, with actual transmission capacity determined by supply and demand. Air travel demand, measured by passenger expenditure (volume * price), showed a clear year-on-year growth trend in April and May, despite a reduction in passenger volume due to high oil prices.

With the summer travel season set to begin after mid-June exams conclude, supply and demand dynamics are expected to enhance the transmission capacity of oil price changes, potentially exceeding market expectations.

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