On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" (the Plan). The Plan specifies that by 2030, China's total installed renewable energy capacity should reach around 3,500 GW, with combined wind and solar capacity exceeding 2,800 GW. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the focus will be on advancing the construction of renewable energy power supply, including wind and solar bases in the "Three North" regions, offshore wind, integrated hydro-wind-solar projects, and distributed new energy sources.
Experts state that the renewable energy industry involves large-scale investment and strong driving effects, with total investment in the sector expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. This will drive collaborative development across the entire industrial chain, from cutting-edge R&D and manufacturing of wind and solar equipment to power station construction and computing-power coordination, creating strong green growth momentum. This plan signals structural demand for commodities and has already been reflected in the stock market.
Yesterday, after multiple stocks in the lithium mining concept sector hit their daily price limits, the electric power, photovoltaic equipment, and industrial metals sectors also strengthened in the afternoon session.
Chen Xiaobo, a non-ferrous metals analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, believes the release of the Plan marks China's renewable energy sector entering a new development phase of "expanding scale and improving quality for reliable substitution." Its significance extends far beyond that of an ordinary industry plan, serving as a strategic and programmatic document for building an energy powerhouse, achieving carbon peak targets, and driving the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
According to Chen Hansong, a new energy researcher at Galaxy Futures, as of June 2026, China's cumulative installed solar power capacity was 1,274 GW, and cumulative installed wind power capacity was 678 GW. Based on the target of 2,800 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2030, the average annual new installed capacity from the second half of 2026 to 2030 would need to exceed 188 GW.
According to the Plan, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, wind and solar bases in the "Three North" regions will add over 370 GW of new capacity, while distributed new energy sources nationwide will add over 300 GW. Chen Hansong noted that in 2025, the domestic photovoltaic (PV) utilization rate was generally below 95%. Following the release of the "Notice on Deepening Market-Oriented Reforms of New Energy On-Grid Pricing to Promote High-Quality Development," the economic viability of PV installations declined, putting pressure on industry demand. In the first half of 2026, China added 72.07 GW of new PV capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 142.09 GW, a decline of over 66%, marking the lowest new installation figure for the same period since 2023. The Plan's coordinated advancement in both centralized and distributed sectors, along with clear installation targets, will help mitigate the downward trend in PV installation demand during 2026 and 2027.
"Overall, the Plan not only sets the overall target for wind and solar development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period but also specifies requirements for new energy power consumption, energy storage construction, and distributed and centralized new energy projects. This will alleviate the downward trend in crystalline silicon PV demand in 2026 and 2027, with PV demand expected to recover significantly from 2028 to 2030," Chen Hansong said. Previously, due to supply-demand imbalances, polysilicon futures prices faced significant downward pressure. In July 2026, the National Standards Commission released the "Energy Consumption Limits per Unit Product for Silicon Polycrystalline and Germanium," marking the start of supply-side consolidation in the polysilicon industry. Combined with rising demand, the polysilicon market is expected to gradually recover and enter a new price cycle starting in 2027.
While the functional roles and economic logic of copper and aluminum in the new power system differ, both are core beneficiaries of the policy dividends.
The power industry is itself a major application area for copper. According to Chen Xiaobo, for copper, wind and solar installations along with grid upgrades form a "dual-engine" driver for demand. Industry calculations show that each GW of PV installation consumes 4,000 to 5,000 tons of copper. According to forecasts from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, global new PV installations in 2026 are expected to be between 500 GW and 667 GW, with China's new installations projected between 180 GW and 240 GW, driving copper demand by 1.2 million tons.
Combined with the deployment of grid investment in the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) lines, distribution networks, and cross-provincial transmission channels will further amplify copper consumption demand. Chen Xiaobo stated that copper, due to its unmatched electrical conductivity, is difficult to replace in the medium to short term, resulting in this demand growth being rigid.
For aluminum, the expansion on the demand side and constraints on the supply side will create a sharper contradiction. Chen Xiaobo noted that, according to industry estimates, each GW of PV power station consumes about 15,000 tons of aluminum. Based on the previously mentioned forecast for new installations in the Chinese market, this translates to aluminum demand of approximately 3.6 million tons. Additionally, the energy storage sector will generate new demand for aluminum, and lightweighting in new energy vehicles will also contribute millions of tons of demand growth.
"Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained by the policy-imposed capacity ceiling," Chen Xiaobo said. Relevant data shows that as of the end of June, China's installed electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 46.289 million tons, with operating capacity at 45.55 million tons and an operating rate of 98.4%. Even with some hidden overcapacity against the backdrop of high profits, it remains difficult to significantly increase total supply. The key variable on the supply side remains overseas. Overall, the Plan is expected to significantly optimize the supply-demand structure of aluminum.
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