Amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, control and passage mechanisms for the Strait of Hormuz are becoming a core variable for global energy markets. Reports indicate that Iran and Oman are drafting a new shipping regulatory agreement, while regional military conflicts intensify further, creating a dual impact on market sentiment and oil price trends. According to Iranian state media, Iran and Oman are studying the establishment of a "passage monitoring mechanism" that would require vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to undergo coordination and supervision by the two countries during their voyages. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that the arrangement aims to "ensure navigation safety and improve service efficiency," rather than restrict passage. This news quickly impacted financial markets. Previously, after US President Trump hinted that military action against Iran could last for weeks, major US stock indices experienced significant declines. However, following reports of the potential coordination mechanism for the Strait, market sentiment improved noticeably. US stocks halted their decline and turned higher, with the three major indices briefly turning positive. The Nasdaq had fallen as much as 2% earlier in the session, and oil prices also retreated from their intraday highs. Nevertheless, geopolitical conflict continues to escalate. On April 2, a key transportation infrastructure site in Karaj, Iran, the Beyg Highway Bridge, was damaged in an attack attributed to the US and Israel. The bridge is a vital link connecting Tehran and Karaj and is considered one of Iran's landmark projects. The attack caused structural damage to the bridge, road closures, and triggered power outages in some areas, further heightening regional tensions. Concurrently, the structure of the energy market is also shifting. Data shows that following the US's phased relaxation of some sanctions against Iran, Iranian crude oil prices have shown a rare premium. In late March, Iran's main export crude traded at a premium of approximately $1 per barrel compared to Brent crude, whereas at the start of the year, under comprehensive sanctions, it was still at a discount of about $10 per barrel. Analysts point out that this change reflects Iran leveraging its influence over the Strait of Hormuz to reshape the energy trade landscape. With global supplies tightening and Brent crude prices maintaining highs around $107 per barrel, the market is willing to pay a premium for "tradable" crude oil. By restricting transport for some Gulf countries while ensuring its own crude exports, Iran is effectively creating regional shipping bottlenecks, thereby pushing up global oil prices and enhancing the competitiveness of its own crude. Shipping data indicates that tankers associated with Iran continue to transport crude oil through this strategic waterway, utilizing floating storage facilities for loading and unloading to maintain export capacity.
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