Insights from World Gold Council's Global Head of Research: The Long-Term Case for Gold Allocation Remains Intact

From July 16th to 17th, the 2026 China International Gold Conference and Gansu Gold Industry High-Quality Development Conference was held in Lanzhou, Gansu. The first half of 2026 saw significant volatility in the gold market, with gold price movements, central bank purchases, and the role of gold in asset allocation drawing widespread market attention. To address these key concerns, an exclusive interview was conducted with Juan Carlos Artigas, CEO of the Americas and Global Head of Research at the World Gold Council, to provide rational and professional insights for gold investors.

Question: Over the past three years, gold prices have been driven by geopolitical risk, policy shifts, central bank purchases, and market demand. In 2022, the Fed's actual interest rate hikes only caused gold to correct by about 20%. However, current market expectations for continued hikes or persistently high rates have triggered a larger price decline. How do you interpret this shift in market behavior?

Juan Carlos Artigas: There are two factors to consider. First, gold prices were in a relatively low range overall in 2020 and 2021, before starting to rise, which brought pent-up demand into the market. A major change occurred in 2022 with a significant increase in central bank purchasing demand. Interest rates impacted gold in 2022 and remain important now. Current gold price movements are also influenced by major trends. Last year, gold rose nearly 70%, placing the price at a high level, leading some investors to take profits and reduce positions, which contributed to the decline. We need to view this in a longer-term context. Gold has been on an overall upward trajectory since last year; periodic pullbacks and the market seeking equilibrium are normal phenomena.

Question: We have observed a noticeable divergence in gold price trends between Asian and European/American trading sessions in the first half of this year. Do you believe this divergence between Asian and Western markets will persist long-term? What are the core factors causing this split?

Juan Carlos Artigas: I do not believe this divergence will necessarily persist long-term. Last year, US and Asian investors were trading in the same direction. The current divergence in views primarily stems from two points. First, interest rates are high in the US and Western markets, while they are relatively low in Asian markets like China and Japan. The opportunity cost of holding gold is higher in the US and lower in Asia, which is the first reason. The second point is a difference in risk perception. US investors view regional conflicts as short-term, temporary events. Investors outside the US, particularly in Asia, believe conflicts will have long-term, structural impacts. Both types of investors are driven by interest rates and risk factors, but they operate in different market environments. If US interest rates subsequently decline or if market risk concerns intensify, the trading directions of Asian and European/American markets could converge again.

Question: From 2025 to 2026, despite gold price volatility being at historically high levels, central bank gold purchases have remained stable. In your view, what are the core driving factors behind this?

Juan Carlos Artigas: Central banks view gold as a highly valuable complementary asset and strategic component within their foreign exchange reserves. According to our research, central banks widely consider gold an excellent tool for asset diversification. Gold's stable performance during risk events, its ability to hedge against inflation and protect purchasing power, are also reasons for central banks to increase holdings. Finally, central banks in emerging markets particularly value gold's role in hedging geopolitical risk.

Question: Finally, a question of great concern to investors. Recently, gold prices have been fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, having fallen significantly from the start of the year. In this context, investor attitudes towards gold investment have become more cautious. In your view, looking at a longer horizon of 3 to 5 years, or even 10 years, does gold remain a worthwhile investment category for global ordinary investors to allocate to?

Juan Carlos Artigas: We do not provide investment advice, but our ongoing analytical data shows that gold can enhance long-term investment portfolios. Gold can deliver long-term returns, reduce portfolio risk, diversify asset exposure, and possesses excellent liquidity. Over medium to long-term horizons, these multiple attributes can make an investment portfolio more robust, more resilient to risk, better able to withstand market volatility, and deliver superior overall performance. This is the conclusion drawn from our comprehensive review of historical data.