Crude oil prices advanced to a near one-month peak on Thursday, propelled by President Trump's fresh threats to further cripple Iran's economy, which dimmed hopes for an imminent end to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude settled just below $94 per barrel, while the newly announced sanctions imply that any financial institution, enterprise, or government body assisting Iran could face U.S. economic penalties. This move has cast a shadow over the near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Middle Eastern producers continue to ship crude out of the Persian Gulf through unconventional methods like "dark shipping," market expectations of a prolonged conflict have once again driven up oil and fuel prices. Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd, noted that in the current news-driven market environment, Trump's latest statements are fueling the upward momentum. Additionally, Iran's central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, confirmed that the country's oil exports have effectively halted under the ongoing U.S. military blockade. At settlement, September-delivery WTI climbed 2.3% to $87.83 per barrel, October WTI rose 2.9% to $86.83 per barrel, and October Brent gained 2.4% to $93.78 per barrel.
Gold prices displayed a hesitant tone on Thursday, ending largely unchanged after dipping 1.4% intraday. On one hand, a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields suggested investors viewed the Treasury's unexpected long-term bond buyback plan as a short-term fix, with the rise in 30-year yields indicating the measure has not effectively assuaged concerns over the government's soaring debt. On the other hand, higher oil prices intensified worries that inflation could push the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on Thursday that the administration is prepared to expand buybacks of high-cost debt, offering some support to bullion.
Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank, pointed out that after a substantial rally, gold's trajectory is unlikely to be linear, with sustained gains hinging on persistently lower yields and broader ETF inflows. As of 3:30 p.m. in New York, spot gold edged up 0.2% to $4,522.91 per ounce, while spot silver advanced 1.7% to $68.1003 per ounce.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slipped marginally on Thursday amid a notable influx of inventory. Traders, responding to earlier acute supply tightness and extraordinarily high spot premiums, have been delivering metal into LME warehouses to capture lucrative returns, pushing readily available copper stockpiles up by nearly 72,000 tonnes this week—the largest weekly increase since 2020. Reports indicate that Trafigura Group is among the traders making substantial deliveries this week. While the wave of inflows has eased the extreme tightness, key spreads remain elevated. The premium of cash copper over the three-month contract retreated to around $225 per tonne on Thursday, far below Monday's peak of $545 per tonne, yet still well above normal levels.
Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, observed that the market remains fragile after months of inventory drawdowns, with physical supply constraints expected to keep underpinning copper prices. At the LME close, three-month copper dipped 0.1% to $14,036.5 per tonne. Among other metals, LME zinc rose 1.4% to $3,760 per tonne, lead gained 0.8% to $1,902 per tonne, and tin added 0.5% to $55,803 per tonne, while aluminum fell 0.7% to $3,205 per tonne and nickel dropped 1.4% to $16,880 per tonne.
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