Understanding the Core Holdings of High-Net-Worth Investors

Deep News12-18 15:10

High-net-worth individuals currently focus on four major asset allocations, as highlighted in recent analysis:

1. **Quantitative Enhancement Strategies**: Primarily invested in small-cap stocks, with key risks tied to size factors and nonlinear factors. 2. **Sci-Tech Innovation Funds**: Vulnerable to domestic interest rate hikes triggering style shifts and potential AI bubble bursts due to reduced U.S. capital expenditure expectations. 3. **All-Weather Strategies**: Exposed to bond losses from rising rates and gold price declines. 4. **Overseas Assets**: Risks include RMB exchange rate fluctuations and U.S. AI sector volatility.

**Market Observations Confirm These Trends**: - **Margin Trading**: Since last September, margin balances surged by ¥1.1 trillion, heavily concentrated in TMT sectors led by tech giants. - **Private Funds**: From 2024 to October 2025, private fund assets grew by ¥1.8 trillion, with an estimated ¥1.5 trillion in quantitative strategies. - **ETFs**: In 2025, ETF assets jumped 53% to ¥5.74 trillion, led by Sci-Tech bonds, Hang Seng Tech, gold ETFs, and CSI 300 ETFs. Notably, the A500ETF saw ¥36.7 billion inflows in a month, with its size doubling since June.

**Performance Highlights**: - Top quantitative hedge funds delivered over 40% returns this year, outperforming active managers for three consecutive years. - Mixed equity funds rebounded with 32% gains, while broad indices like the A500ETF and CSI 300ETF rose 22% and 18%, respectively. - QDII funds and gold ETFs (many now capped) exceeded ¥100 billion, with "dividend-gold-Nasdaq" portfolios gaining traction.

**Global Sentiment Echoes Crowding Risks**: A global fund manager survey shows: - Macro optimism at its highest since August 2021. - Equity and commodity allocations peaked since February 2022, with cash levels hitting a record low of 3.3%. - AI泡沫 (37%) and private credit (40%) are seen as top tail risks, while "Mag 7" (54%) and gold (29%) remain crowded trades.

**Outlook Questions**: Can 2025’s "liquidity-driven rally" repeat? Key uncertainties include: - Whether crowded positions will reverse trends. - If rising rates will revive real estate. - Whether macro hedging is the best response to style rotations.

Amid the fog, investors continue seeking clarity.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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