This year, the reallocation of a large volume of maturing bank deposits has garnered widespread attention. Subsequently, investors are focusing on several key aspects regarding the flow of these maturing deposits: First, will the matured deposits primarily remain within the bank's balance sheet? Second, could these deposits migrate to low-risk wealth management products? Third, is there a possibility of deposits moving into the equity market?
▍Interest Rate Review: At the beginning of the year, the central bank's monetary policy signaled proactive support, emphasizing that there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. Short-end rates showed relative strength, but concerns persisted over the supply of ultra-long-term special government bonds. Coupled with the A-share market's spring rally, long-end rates fluctuated and weakened. In terms of the yield curve shape, since January, the short end has benefited from loose liquidity, while the ultra-long end was constrained by expectations of special bond supply, leading to a widening term spread. The 30Y-10Y spread center further rose, hitting a new high since 2023, resulting in a significantly steeper yield curve. Regarding funding rates, the market experienced brief disturbances during the tax period, but liquidity remained generally stable as the central bank conveyed a supportive stance. In terms of credit spreads, they have continued to narrow since January.
▍How to Interpret the Trend of Declining Deposit Growth? Since the second half of 2025, the growth rate of deposits in the banking system has gradually slowed, with the gap between deposit and loan growth rates simultaneously contracting. Structurally, the growth rate of corporate time deposits and the preference for them have noticeably declined. Although the household sector has seen a year-on-year slowdown, it still maintains a relatively high growth rate, reflecting that households continue to exhibit "passive savings." The pressure on banks' liability side is more evident in the difficulty of liquidity management within the corporate sector. It is estimated that of the total maturing deposits in 2026, over 40 trillion yuan in long-term deposits may face a significant yield gap, making them more likely to become potential outflow funds.
▍Household Deposit Destination 1: Still Dominated by Savings. Influenced by factors such as financial literacy, income expectations, and perceptions of the macroeconomic environment, the overall risk appetite of households remains slow to rise. Currently, feedback from the household sector regarding employment status, current income, and future income confidence remains relatively cautious. The majority of household savings are likely to stay primarily in bank deposits, but structurally, this is manifesting as a shift from long-term to short-term deposits and a migration from large banks to smaller banks.
▍Household Deposit Destination 2: Partial Shift to Low-Risk Wealth Management Products. Wealth management products, particularly fixed-income products like bank wealth management products and insurance, can be considered part of "broad savings." After the implementation of new asset management regulations, the growth rate of RMB deposits plus broad savings (including bank wealth management and insurance) in China's household sector has far exceeded the同期 GDP growth rate. In recent years, the internal structure of broad savings has shown a significant shift, with the growth rates of bank wealth management products and insurance明显领先于存款明显领先于 deposits. The absolute proportion of bank wealth management and insurance in new broad savings has also increased significantly.
▍Household Deposit Destination 3: A Small Portion Flows into the Equity Market. A small portion of savings with a higher risk appetite may seek higher returns by flowing into the equity market or allocating to products containing equity exposure. However, the proportion is unlikely to be high in the short term, and the long-term sustainability of household deposits moving into the equity market remains to be seen.
▍Market Outlook: Overall, it is estimated that over 40 trillion yuan in long-term deposits could become potential outflow funds. The majority of these funds are likely to remain within the bank's balance sheet, characterized structurally by a shift to short-term deposits and a migration to smaller banks. Under the logic of deposits moving off-balance-sheet, the remaining funds would优先流向优先流向优先流向 bank wealth management products and insurance—fixed-income asset management products with similar positioning—with only a small final portion flowing into the equity market in pursuit of higher returns. It is anticipated that bank wealth management and insurance will still maintain considerable规模增长规模增长 in 2026. However, in a low-interest-rate environment, asset allocation strategies of institutional managers, particularly in areas like "fixed-income plus," products with equity exposure, and multi-asset strategies, will be especially crucial.
▍Risk Factors: Economic fluctuations exceeding expectations; monetary policy turning unexpectedly restrictive; unexpected changes in the bank operating environment; significant adjustments in the bond market.
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