Nickel market analysis: On February 11, 2026, the SHFE nickel main contract opened at 116,800 yuan/mt and closed at 116,830 yuan/mt, down 0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 207,641 lots (+24,675) and open interest of 134,973 lots (+740).
Trend analysis: SHFE nickel fell sharply during the session yesterday before recovering. Weaker overseas nickel prices, lower Indonesian mine-end costs and cooling expectations of production cuts continued to weigh on the market. Indonesian nickel HMA for the first half of November was cut by 2.33%, with HPM for all grades declining in tandem, weakening cost support at the mine end. The earlier joint production cuts by Indonesian HPAL/MHP still have not formed a clear execution scale, while WBN mine is gradually resuming shipments, refined nickel inventories remain high and downstream demand stays weak, continuing to cap nickel price rebounds. On policy, on February 11, Bahlil explicitly required at the Minerba Convex conference that nickel ore supply be controlled through RKAB, and said he would bear the policy pressure caused by tightening quotas, further strengthening expectations of tighter RKAB in 2027. The nickel and cobalt coefficients and metal prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte continued to decline, and purchasing sentiment for nickel sulfate from downstream remained cold with wide disagreement. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season failed to materialize. Planned production of the 300-series in November is up 3.68% month on month, which is expected to drive marginal improvement in nickel pig iron demand, but steel mill purchases remain mostly just-in-time, so overall demand support is limited. On new energy, ternary cathode production schedules for November-December are expected to stay low, terminal demand lacks clear improvement, and nickel salt plants' willingness to purchase on a spot basis is weak.
Nickel ore: According to Mysteel, ore prices continued to slide, the cost center of nickel pig iron fell sharply, and the cost support for high-grade nickel pig iron weakened accordingly. This week, bearish factors at the raw material end continued to be released, opening further downside space for nickel pig iron prices. In Indonesia, HMA and HPM benchmark prices for the first half of November were cut again, and the negative premium on domestic ore has not only failed to bottom out but has widened further, with mines showing a markedly stronger willingness to concede margins to spur deals. In the Philippines, affected by El Niño, the delayed rainy season has passively lengthened the supply window, and CIF quotes for 1.3% grade ore fell under pressure to $40-42/wmt.
Spot market: During January-September, Indonesia's exports of nickel and its products rose by $3.15 billion from the same period last year, an increase of 32.98%. Spot nickel prices fell, premiums and discounts diverged, market sentiment was bearish, and overall trading activity was light, with downstream purchases mainly meeting just-in-time needs. Among them, the Jinchuan nickel premium changed by -150 yuan/mt to 3,700 yuan/mt, the imported nickel premium was unchanged at 150 yuan/mt, and the nickel bean premium was 50 yuan/mt. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant inventory was 88,554 tons (-110), and LME nickel inventory was 278,238 tons (0).
Macro: US third-quarter economic growth and September PCE inflation data were firm, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's October meeting, which raised market expectations of a December rate hike; dollar and interest rate pressures continued to affect risk appetite for non-ferrous metals. Expectations of Middle East US-Iran talks pushed international oil prices to fall intraday, but shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain. Domestically, on February 11, the central bank's new open market operation framework was officially implemented, with 541 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos at a rate of 1.25%, and a net withdrawal of 515 billion yuan that day.
Strategy: The nickel market currently maintains a pattern of ample supply, high inventories and weak demand, with WBN's restart, lower mine-end costs and US rate hike expectations pressuring prices. Indonesia's possible tightening of RKAB in 2027, potential HPAL production cuts, local RKEF load reductions and negative production profits may still provide periodic support, but actual supply contraction still needs to be realized. SHFE nickel is expected to remain rangebound near the bottom; watch Indonesia's 2027 quota approvals, production cut execution, refined nickel inventories and changes in US monetary policy. Single-side: mainly range trading. Intertemporal: none. Cross-product: none. Futures-spot: none. Options: none. Risks: changes in relevant domestic economic policy, changes in Indonesia's RKAB and production cut policy, changes in US monetary policy, and repeated Middle East tensions.
Stainless steel market analysis: On February 11, 2026, the stainless steel main contract opened at 13,475 yuan/mt and closed at 13,550 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 132,221 lots (-51,148) and open interest of 94,982 lots (-6,911).
Trend analysis: Stainless steel futures rebounded in choppy trade yesterday, outperforming SHFE nickel, as earlier steel mill production cuts and continued destocking of social inventories supported the market. According to the latest Mysteel statistics, estimated crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel mills in October was 3.4536 million tons, down 2.86% month on month, including 1.8223 million tons of the 300-series, down 5.21% month on month; planned production for November is 3.5296 million tons, up 2.20% month on month, including 1.8893 million tons of the 300-series, up 3.68% month on month. Current steel mill supply contraction has eased inventory pressure, but the contradiction between higher November production schedules and weak terminal demand still exists. Nickel pig iron and ferrochrome prices are running low, and cost support is relatively limited. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season failed to materialize. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January-September, national real estate development investment fell 20.6% year on year, and new housing starts fell 24.9% year on year, with demand in the real estate chain remaining persistently weak.
Spot market: Stainless steel futures rebounded slightly, while spot trading remained mainly based on just-in-time needs. The Wuxi market stainless steel price was 13,950 yuan/mt (+0), the Foshan market stainless steel price was 14,000 yuan/mt (+75), and the 304/2B premium/discount was 400 to 700 yuan/mt. SMM data show that the average ex-factory tax-inclusive price of high-grade nickel pig iron changed by 0.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,011.0 yuan/nickel point yesterday.
Strategy: The continued destocking of stainless steel inventories supports prices, but higher steel mill production schedules in November, weak terminal demand and lower raw material costs limit upside room. Short-term prices are expected to remain rangebound near the bottom; focus on the realization of 300-series production schedules, inventories and changes in nickel pig iron prices. Single-side: neutral. Intertemporal: none. Cross-product: none. Futures-spot: none. Options: none. Risks: changes in relevant domestic economic policy and real estate policy, and changes in Indonesian nickel pig iron supply and RKAB policy.
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