Goldman Sachs: Expert Predicts Relatively Stable Hainan Duty-Free Sales Competition; CTG DUTY-FREE (01880) to Maintain 70-80% Market Share

According to a research report from Goldman Sachs, an investor conference call was held last week featuring a travel retail and duty-free expert with years of experience in the development and operation of Hainan's duty-free business. The discussion primarily covered the latest duty-free sales trends and growth drivers in Hainan, price competition among existing duty-free store operators, and the market outlook for this year along with the long-term competitive landscape. Looking ahead to 2026, the expert expressed cautious optimism regarding the growth of Hainan's duty-free sales. On the positive side, he anticipates that inbound tourism will continue its healthy growth trajectory, with increased consumption on high-priced items such as apparel and a greater variety of 3C products. Spending by outbound travelers is also expected to rise. On a more cautious note, the expert predicts that consumption vouchers will be distributed in batches, with recent signs of a slowdown in their issuance already observed in Sanya. Furthermore, he does not believe that last year's policy relaxation will significantly boost sales among Hainan residents, as sales data from November showed that local residents contributed only 11 million yuan in sales, accounting for less than 1% of the total, with an average spending per traveler of just 2,500 yuan, far lower than that of other visitors. Regarding competition, the expert mentioned that the overall competitive environment remains relatively stable. CTG DUTY-FREE (01880) is expected to maintain its market share of 70% to 80%, and it is considered unlikely that new entrants will emerge in the duty-free market within the next 2 to 3 years. The expert also believes that an independent tariff system will facilitate the import of foreign products and, over time, attract more investment, although the related logistics and customs functions will require time to be fully developed. The expert further noted that CTG DUTY-FREE continues to compete effectively through its product variety and inventory levels, offering more bundled packaging options rather than resorting to the aggressive price discounts or promotions commonly seen in other stores. Goldman Sachs stated it will focus on the margin trends in CTG DUTY-FREE's upcoming preliminary results for the fourth quarter of 2024 to assess their impact on final earnings.