BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that upstream material companies (lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate cathode, electrolyte, separator, solvent, etc.) have seen significant profit improvement, benefiting from robust downstream demand and successful price increases. In the first quarter, the overall battery sector's revenue increased by 47% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 83%. Specifically, lithium battery revenue and net profit grew by 48% and 49% respectively, while battery chemical revenue and net profit increased by 58% and 379% respectively. Starting April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for batteries will be reduced from 9% to 6%. The firm believes this will help accelerate the phasing out of outdated capacity in the medium to long term, with industry concentration expected to increase further. Regarding individual stocks, it is recommended to focus on the industry leader, CATL (300750.SZ/Buy), which possesses cost advantages, technical barriers, and a leading overseas layout. BOCOM INTL's main views are as follows:
China: Power Battery Installation Volume Maintained Growth in April, Exports Declined Month-on-Month Due to New Tax Policy According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, power battery installations in mainland China reached 62.4 GWh in April, up 10.4% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries dominated, with installations of 50.8 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, representing an 11.0% month-on-month increase and a 13.4% year-on-year growth. From January to April, cumulative power battery installations in mainland China totaled 187.2 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Affected by the new export tax policy, combined exports of power and energy storage batteries from mainland China amounted to 31.7 GWh, down 12.3% month-on-month but up 42.0% year-on-year, accounting for 19.3% of monthly sales. Among these, energy storage battery exports were 11.4 GWh, representing 36.1% of total exports, a decrease of 17.4% month-on-month.
Overseas: Overseas Battery Installation Volume Declined in Q1, Market Share of Chinese Manufacturers Increased According to SNE Research data, overseas power battery installations in the first quarter were 117 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% (Q1 2025: up 26.5% year-on-year), with growth slowing. This was mainly due to a double-digit decline in North America, while Europe and Asia (excluding China) maintained an upward trend. In terms of competitive landscape, the combined market share of the three major Korean manufacturers (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On) fell by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year to 29.5%, with Samsung SDI's installation volume dropping significantly by 27.7% year-on-year. Japan's Panasonic performed steadily, with installations up 4% year-on-year to 9.1 GWh, though its market share declined by 1 percentage point to 7.7%. The combined market share of Chinese companies increased significantly by 10.5 percentage points year-on-year to 54.2%, with CATL and BYD's market shares rising by 3.8 and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year to 33.8% and 9.6% respectively.
CATL Plans 50 Billion Yuan Investment to Expand 40 GWh Sodium Battery Capacity, Accelerating Sodium Battery Industrialization On May 7, 2026, the environmental impact report for the "Phase VI Expansion Project of the Fuding Era New Energy Battery Green Intelligent Manufacturing Base Project" was announced. The project involves a total investment of 50 billion yuan and is expected to add 40 GWh of sodium-ion power battery capacity upon completion. The sodium-ion power batteries produced in this project will have a specific capacity of ≥180 mAh/g and a cycle life of 2000 cycles, retaining no less than 80% of the initial discharge capacity. The product technology route involves layered oxides and hard carbon. On April 27, CATL signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hyposolar for energy storage sodium-ion batteries. The announcement of CATL's 40 GWh sodium-ion battery project indicates an acceleration in the industrialization of sodium batteries and underscores the company's commitment to bringing sodium battery technology to market.
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