East Money Securities has released a research report indicating that Qatar's helium supply is facing dual pressures of logistical disruptions and production capacity damage due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and facility damage. Spot prices have surged rapidly from approximately 66 yuan per cubic meter in late February to 84 yuan per cubic meter. With inventory buffers nearing depletion, a substantial shortage may emerge in April, potentially driving further price increases. Against the backdrop of rigid downstream demand and limited short-term supply elasticity, the report recommends focusing on companies with boil-off gas (BOG) helium extraction capacity, such as Jovo Energy (605090.SH) and ShuiFa Gas (603318.SH). Key points from East Money Securities are as follows:
On March 18 and 19, Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar was attacked again, causing severe damage to liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Annual helium exports are expected to be reduced by 14%, with repairs estimated to take 3–5 years. Previously, due to drone attacks by Iran, Qatar Gas had suspended LNG and associated product production on March 2, declaring force majeure two days later. Related helium consulting firms indicate a very low probability of partial helium production resuming within six weeks.
In 2025, Qatar is projected to account for approximately 34% of global helium production and 19% of recoverable reserves. About 62% of China's helium imports come from Qatar. Helium, as a globally scarce strategic resource, exhibits significant geological imbalance, with global supply being highly concentrated. In 2024, global helium production reached 188 million cubic meters, dominated by the United States (58 million cubic meters, 31%) and Qatar (73 million cubic meters, 39%). In 2024, China imported approximately 14.04 million cubic meters of helium from Qatar, accounting for 62.0% of total imports.
Helium is an irreplaceable strategic resource, and demand is expected to remain robust. It possesses unique properties such as low boiling point (-268.9°C/4.2K), superfluid characteristics at ultra-low temperatures (2.2K), chemical inertness, extremely low solubility in water, high thermal conductivity, strong permeability, and high ionization potential. These properties make it widely applicable in defense, aerospace, high-end manufacturing, medical, and scientific research sectors, impacting national security, public health, and economic development.
In the short term, as inventory buffers gradually deplete, a tangible supply gap may emerge. As of March 26, the market price for domestic tube-trailer helium (5N) was approximately 84 yuan per cubic meter, up 27% (18 yuan per cubic meter) from February 28. The moderate price increase so far may be attributed to the dual buffer of in-transit cargo and existing inventories. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for about four weeks, while the shipping cycle from Qatar to China typically takes 20–25 days. Helium shipments already in transit are arriving and being gradually consumed. The industry’s normal safety stock level is 45–50 days. If the strait remains blocked, domestic inventories will enter a rapid depletion phase, making the supply-demand gap more apparent and likely pushing prices higher.
In the long term, Qatar’s annual helium exports are expected to decrease by 14%, with repairs estimated to take 3–5 years, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance. Helium production in Ras Laffan is tied to LNG processes, meaning helium capacity cannot be restored independently of LNG production. Since helium cannot easily ramp up production to meet sudden demand surges and has a storage window of only 45–50 days, the supply chain’s buffering capacity is extremely fragile. Coupled with rigid growth in downstream demand—such as from advanced semiconductor manufacturing—the supply gap caused by facility damage may evolve from a short-term disruption into a medium- to long-term challenge, potentially sustaining high volatility in global helium prices.
Investment recommendations: Given the rigid downstream demand and limited short- to medium-term supply elasticity, investors are advised to monitor companies with BOG helium extraction capabilities, such as Jovo Energy (605090.SH) (1.5 million cubic meters/year) and ShuiFa Gas (603318.SH) (200,000 cubic meters/year). These firms possess domestic helium extraction capabilities and upstream control, with relatively fixed costs and potential benefits from both volume and price increases. Their self-sufficiency in natural gas-based helium extraction allows for better cost control, while rising prices may expand unit gross margins, offering promising profit flexibility.
Risk warnings include geopolitical volatility, helium price fluctuations, and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.
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