On the previous trading day (October 22), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.48% to 3,658.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.96% to 11,357.32 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.37% to 2,576.90 points; total turnover across the two markets reached 1,528.714 billion yuan; 535 stocks advanced, 4,999 declined, and 43 were flat, with 32 hitting the daily limit up and 5 hitting the daily limit down.
Huafu Securities believes that U.S. macroeconomic fragility is generally controllable but the margin of safety in valuations remains thin; Guotai Haitong holds that the scarcity of computing power continues to be validated while energy prices are strengthening; CITIC Securities notes that equipment orders are accelerating their transmission to upstream components, with domestic suppliers moving from backup to primary status; Guojin Securities points out that brokerage equity investments have become a significant profit contributor.
Huafu Securities: Macro | How to Observe U.S. Fragility?
Current U.S. macroeconomic fragility is generally manageable. In a tightening environment, risks tend to first accumulate in leverage and asset valuations, forming fragility, then gradually emerge as financing conditions tighten, and finally manifest as credit risk exposure. If inflation proves persistent and geopolitical conflicts continue to exceed expectations, the market may reassess the interest rate path, driving adjustments in risk asset valuations and amplifying pressure through rising financing costs and tightening liquidity, at which point asset prices could experience periodic corrections. Household and corporate defaults are typically lagging indicators after risk transmits to the repayment stage; widespread deterioration often signals that risk has entered a later stage of exposure and clearing.
Guotai Haitong: Strategy | Computing Power Scarcity Continues to Be Validated, Energy Prices Strengthening
Computing power scarcity continues to be validated, and energy prices are strengthening. Last week (October 12–18), the main mid-level prosperity signals were: 1) AI hardware prosperity growth remains at a high level, computing power leasing prices remain relatively strong, but call demand weakened week-on-week, with OpenRouter call volumes declining week-on-week and average Token prices edging down slightly; continued observation of Token call market prosperity progress is warranted; 2) geopolitical disruptions supported oil price gains, winter stockpiling drove coal prices stronger, while metal prices retreated; 3) construction and freight demand rebounded after the holiday, new home sales still declined year-on-year, pork prices continued to fall, and domestic demand prosperity remained relatively weak.
CITIC Securities: Electronics | 2026 Bay Area Chip Exhibition Summary: Component Orders Continue to Be Revised Upward, Equipment Maintains High Prosperity
The 2026 Bay Area Chip Exhibition expanded further in scale, attracting over 6,500 professional buyers, with domestic equipment new products and new processes showcased in a concentrated manner. New equipment orders in Q3 2026 continued their robust momentum, with industry participants remaining optimistic about equipment demand for the next three years or more; some enterprises believe this round of order acceleration could extend to 2028/2029. In the medium to long term, AI-driven global capacity expansion and process upgrades are expected to continue opening up space for equipment demand. From the perspective of the industry chain, equipment order growth is accelerating its transmission to upstream components, with lead times for overseas core components significantly extended, and some categories forming a "soft supply cutoff" for domestic equipment manufacturers, prompting domestic suppliers to accelerate their transition from backup to primary status, with orders for leading component enterprises already showing notable growth. We believe that global capacity expansion and domestic substitution are expected to jointly drive order and market share gains for domestic manufacturers, and we remain bullish on the domestic semiconductor components and equipment industry chain.
Guojin Securities: Non-Bank | Brokerage Equity Investment In-Depth Report: Alternative Subsidiary Flexibility Released, Follow-on Investments Open Up Return Dividends
Equity investment business has become an important profit contributor. In H1 2026, the private equity subsidiaries and alternative subsidiaries of brokerages within our statistical scope recorded a combined net profit of approximately 24.063 billion yuan (excluding CICC Wealth), accounting for about 16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed brokerages, with equity investment business already playing a key role. The essence of the business is a portfolio of technology equity options held by brokerages, characterized by strong cyclicality and high elasticity. Returns come from the valuation leap from primary market cost to issuance market value and then to secondary market prices, highly correlated with the secondary market, with return elasticity and drawdown risk coexisting. Brokerages with leading comprehensive capabilities also possess greater advantages in investment banking, investment research, and other synergies.
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