On Monday (July 27), the A-share market staged a volatile rebound, with all three major indices closing higher. Total trading volume on the two exchanges surged back above the 2 trillion yuan mark. Cxmt Corporation, the domestic leader in DRAM memory chips, set multiple records on its first day of listing, skyrocketing 465.82% to become the A-share market's largest company by total market capitalization. Its single-day trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan, making it the first stock in A-share history to surpass 100 billion yuan in daily turnover. However, Cxmt Corporation's stellar performance did not directly ignite buying enthusiasm across the broader storage sector, with GigaDevice falling over 5%.
The reasons for this divergence are twofold. First, there is a fundamental difference in business operations. Cxmt Corporation is currently the only pure-play DRAM memory manufacturer listed on the A-share market, a distinction that sets it apart from the majority of other companies in the storage sector, making it not a direct comparable. Second, the massive 140 billion yuan in turnover on its debut day created a significant 'siphoning effect' on active capital within the sector, putting pressure on other storage stocks under the existing zero-sum market conditions.
Market funds instead focused more heavily on the overseas AI computing hardware direction. During the late trading session, sub-sectors such as optical modules, PCBs, and MLCCs showed clear strength. Notably, Sanneng Group surged over 10%, while Shengyi Electronics, Shennan Circuits, and Shengyi Technology all rose over 6%. Zhongji Innolight and Tianfu Communication also rebounded by nearly 3%.
Among popular ETFs, the Technology ETF Huabao (515000), which tracks the overall performance of leading tech stocks, turned positive and rallied in late trading, closing up 1.66%. The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao (159363), which focuses on optical module CPO leaders, showed greater flexibility, experiencing a sharp upward move in late trading to break above a 3% intraday gain, with total trading volume exceeding 1.4 billion yuan.
Key Market Themes: Divergence Between Domestic and Overseas AI Hardware
Overall, the market's main line remains centered on AI computing hardware, but with a divergence between domestic and overseas directions. The domestic computing theme focuses on the industrial trend of domestic substitution moving from validation to volume production. The overseas computing theme revolves around recovery opportunities following the digestion of concentrated long positions.
Domestic Computing: Accelerating Volume Driven by Supply-Demand Resonance
The core logic for domestic computing is accelerating volume driven by a positive supply-demand dynamic. On the demand side, the iteration of large language models is continually pushing up demand for computing power, with the smart computing chip market CAGR estimated at 46.3%. On the supply side, restrictions on overseas chips and advanced process nodes create urgency for domestic substitution. Currently, the shipment share of domestic AI chips has exceeded 40%. Ecosystems like Kunpeng and Cambricon are continuously improving, ASIC development is accelerating, and wafer fabs and supernodes are being rolled out more quickly. Domestic AI computing is transitioning from validation to large-scale delivery.
Institutions suggest focusing on three key areas: 1) Chips: Domestic AI chips are entering an accelerated volume phase, with orders and earnings expected to materialize. 2) FABs (Wafer Fabs): Overseas manufacturing constraints combined with strong domestic demand for high-end chips create significant opportunities for domestic wafer fabs. 3) Supernodes: Multi-card coordination and cluster efficiency are becoming critical for breakthroughs, potentially benefiting server integrators, switch chips, and optical communication links.
Overseas Computing: Optical Modules and PCBs Enter a Rebound Window
After a period of consolidation and position digestion, overseas-focused optical modules and PCBs may currently be in a rebound window. Institutions reiterate that the recent pullback in the optical communication sector was a natural correction due to overly concentrated positioning, not a reversal of the industrial trend. Guosheng Securities suggests that the K-shaped market divergence favors the optical communication sector, which holds leading advantages in AI infrastructure sentiment, order visibility, and earnings clarity. As a core link in AI computing interconnection, the scarcity of optical communication is the fundamental reason for capital concentration. Positioning concentration is a result of industrial logic focus, not simple speculation. As floating shares are absorbed and positions are rotated, sector sentiment remains positive. Historical experience indicates that fundamentals will ultimately prevail over positioning.
Regarding PCBs, Galaxy Securities states that the demand for high-layer count PCBs and HDI driven by AI chips is expected to continue expanding. CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) leaders are continuously raising prices, leading to upward valuation revisions for PCB companies. Most leading companies in the PCB industry chain have reported high growth in their first-half earnings forecasts, validating the industrial logic. The advice is to monitor leading AI PCB-related companies.
Tech Bull Market: Buy the Leaders!
The Technology ETF Huabao (515000), along with its feeder funds (A: 007873, C: 007874), selects 50 listed companies from the tech sector that are large in scale, have high market share, strong growth potential, and high R&D investment. It represents the core assets of A-share tech leaders, offering a combination of 'hard tech beta' and 'quality leader alpha'. Its top ten holdings include sub-sector leaders in optical modules, semiconductor equipment, memory chips, PCBs, and innovative drugs.
On a more specific vertical track, the ChiNext AI ETF Huabao (159363), and its feeder funds (A: 023407, C: 023408), focus on optical module CPO leaders. The underlying index has a combined weight of approximately 40% for Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink Technology, and Tianfu Communication, positioning it as a core player in the AI computing theme. The latest scale of the ChiNext AI ETF Huabao (159363) exceeds 7 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 1 billion yuan in the last six months, leading 8 other ETFs tracking the same index in both scale and liquidity.
Data Sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc. Reminder: Market volatility may be significant in the near term, and short-term price movements do not predict future performance. Investors must invest rationally based on their own capital situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position and risk management.
*Institutional perspective reference sources: Guolian Minsheng 'Guolian Minsheng Semiconductor Super Cycle Series: Three Arrows of Domestic Computing Power - Chips, FABs, Supernodes'; Guosheng Securities 'The Joys and Sorrows of Google's Earnings Report'; China Galaxy Securities 'Electronic Valuation Continues to Converge, MLCC and PCB Fundamentals Strong'. ETF fund fee description: When investors apply for or redeem fund shares, the application/redemption agency may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to actual charges by the securities company, with no sales service fee charged. Feeder fund fee description: ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund C charges no subscription fee; redemption fee is 1.5% for holding less than 7 days, 0% for 7 days or more; sales service fee is 0.3%. ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund A subscription fee is 1% for amounts under 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1 million (inclusive) to 2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 2 million yuan or more; redemption fee is 1.5% for holding less than 7 days, 0% for 7 days or more; no sales service fee. Huabao Technology ETF Feeder Fund A subscription fee is 1.00% for amounts under 1 million yuan, 0.60% for 1 million (inclusive) to 2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 2 million yuan or more; redemption fee is 1.50% for holding less than 7 days, 0.50% for 7 days (inclusive) to 180 days, 0.00% for 180 days (inclusive) or more; no sales service fee. Huabao Technology ETF Feeder Fund C charges no subscription fee; redemption fee is 1.50% for holding less than 7 days, 0.00% for 7 days (inclusive) or more; sales service fee is 0.40% per year. ETF subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to actual charges by the securities company. Risk Warning: The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index, with a base date of 2018.12.28 and a publication date of 2024.7.11. The Technology ETF Huabao (515000) passively tracks the CSI Tech Leaders Index, with a base date of 2012.6.29 and a publication date of 2019.3.20. The constituent stocks of the indices are adjusted according to the index compilation rules. Back-tested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. The constituent stocks mentioned in this article are for display purposes only. Descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute investment advice of any kind and do not represent the holdings or trading activities of any fund managed by the fund manager. According to the fund manager's assessment, the Technology ETF Huabao has a risk rating of R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao has a risk rating of R4-Medium-High Risk, suitable for aggressive (C4) and above investors. Please refer to the sales institution for suitability matching opinions. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only. Investors must be responsible for their own independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analyses, or forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice of any form to the reader. The author is not responsible for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content in this article. Fund investment involves risk. Past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Invest in funds cautiously.
Comments