Spot Gold: On May 15th, market sentiment: During the Asian and European sessions on Friday, spot gold experienced a rapid decline, dropping 1.85% to trade near $4,566. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude rising approximately 2% and Brent crude up about 1%. As the U.S. state visit to China concluded, global markets traded a wave of "sell the news" sentiment. Notably, the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, leading to a rapid contraction in overall risk appetite. This caused precious metals, along with global equity markets, to adjust downward. On the geopolitical front, the situation is characterized by Iran's inability to sell oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the U.S. has withdrawn one long-serving aircraft carrier, it still maintains two carriers, which, in conjunction with British and French fleets, intend to maintain a long-term blockade against Iran's "shadow fleet." Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path indicates diminishing expectations for rate cuts, which is unfavorable for the development of precious metals.
Technical analysis: On the daily chart, gold had previously maintained a wide-range consolidation at high levels for an extended period, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to surpass previous resistance levels, indicating a continuous exhaustion of bullish momentum. Today, the daily candle formed a substantial bearish real body, with the price officially breaking below the support of the daily Bollinger Band midline. This move disrupted the recent pattern of oscillating upward movement, sending a clear signal of a pause in the rally and a subsequent pullback. The decline in gold prices during recent intraday trading confirmed a short-term break below a minor ascending trendline. This technical signal reflects increasing selling pressure and a weakening of the positive momentum that previously supported the price action. Concurrently with the price drop, gold also breached the 50-period Simple Moving Average, adding to the negative pressure and increasing the likelihood of further near-term declines. Meanwhile, despite reaching severely oversold levels, the Relative Strength Index continues to issue negative signals, indicating that sellers continue to dominate price action. For the evening session, key resistance levels to watch are at $4,600/$4,636, while support levels to monitor are at $4,505/$4,466.
Evening trading suggestions for gold: Personal recommendation: Consider a long position around $4,505 ± 3 on a pullback, and a short position around $4,595 ± 3 on a rebound. Set a stop-loss of 15 USD for each, with targets of 30/80 USD. [GOLD Pivot: $4,550 per ounce! The above views are for reference only; diversify and manage positions rationally, strictly control risks!
WTI Crude Oil: Market sentiment: The shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify. The recurring U.S.-Iran conflict and restricted passage through the Strait are hindering the transport of approximately 13.7 million barrels per day of crude oil, accounting for over 30% of global trade. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to rise. Additionally, instability in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries has elevated the risk of crude export disruptions. Market concerns over supply interruptions are intensifying, driving capital inflows into crude oil as a hedge. This remains the core bullish factor supporting oil prices at elevated levels with high volatility.
Technical analysis: On Friday, May 15th, WTI crude oil was trading near $105.0 per barrel, up 4.02%. Crude oil prices climbed in recent intraday trading after finding support at the EMA50. This provided positive momentum and helped the commodity regain some buying interest. This performance occurs within the context of a dominant primary short-term bullish trend, with prices moving along a supporting trendline, reflecting the sustained strength of the current upward trajectory. Prices are further supported by additional positive signals emerging on the Relative Strength Index, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued near-term bullish outlook as long as prices remain above key support levels. For the evening session, key resistance levels to watch are at $106.5/$109.0, while support levels to monitor are at $102.5/$101.4.
Evening trading suggestions for crude oil: Personal recommendation: Consider a long position around $103.2 ± 3 on a pullback, and a short position around $108.5 ± 3 on a rebound. Set a stop-loss of 1.0 point for each, with a target of 3.0 points.
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