On July 31, spot gold is currently trading at $4,082. As both the weekly and monthly charts close today, gold surged to $4,106 earlier in the session before retreating under pressure, maintaining a high-level consolidation and correction pattern following the Federal Reserve's rate decision rebound.
On the news front, bullish and bearish factors are balancing each other. The positive impact of the Fed's rate decision has been fully priced in by the market. The presence of hawkish committee members has caused U.S. Treasury yields to stabilize and rebound slightly, capping gold's upside. Meanwhile, ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices at the bottom. Tonight's only data release, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, is expected to have a limited impact on the market and will not alter the current technical consolidation pattern.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold is moving along the MA5 and MA10 moving averages, with the short-term averages shifting from resistance to support. The MA20 moving average at $4,120 serves as strong resistance, while $4,060 forms a stage support level. Yesterday's bullish candlestick with a lower shadow set a bottom-fishing tone. The daily MACD histogram bars are running smoothly above the zero axis in positive territory, and the RSI is near the neutral 50 level, indicating a shift in the medium-term trend from bearish decline to a consolidative bullish structure.
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting and flattening, with gold trading above the middle band. The bullish moving average alignment remains intact, but the KDJ indicator is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually waning and the market may need a pullback to the moving averages to accumulate energy. On the hourly chart, a series of bearish small candlesticks are forming, with prices under pressure below the short-term moving averages. This multi-timeframe divergence shows the daily chart stabilizing bullish, the 4-hour chart maintaining a solid bullish structure, and the hourly chart facing short-term pullback pressure. Combined with month-end portfolio adjustments, the market is likely to trade within a range-bound box pattern, with no conditions for a trending move.
Key support levels for the day are at $4,060 and $4,040, while resistance levels are at $4,105 and $4,120. Trading strategy: Consider going long on a pullback to the $4,060–$4,065 area after a confirmed stabilization, with a stop loss below $4,038 and a target of $4,100–$4,105. If the price rallies to the $4,100–$4,105 area and shows resistance, consider a light short position, with a stop loss above $4,130 and a take profit target near $4,070. If the price closes firmly above $4,120 resistance, the upside for a bullish rebound will expand. If it breaks below $4,040 support effectively, this round of repair rally will be declared over.
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