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Copper: (Zhan Dapeng, Practicing Qualification No.: F3013795; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013582) Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated and weakened, domestic refined copper spot imports showed a small profit, and the Comex-LME copper price spread narrowed to around $4 per ton. On the macro front, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 194,000 last week, a three-month low and approaching the lowest level in 60 years, but pending home sales contracts in the United States fell 7.3% month-on-month in September, far exceeding the expected decline of 0.5%, with the index dropping to 66.0, the lowest level since records for this series began, down 11.3% year-on-year. On the geopolitical front, according to CCTV News citing U.S. officials and informed sources, the U.S. and Israeli militaries have formulated a specific plan to launch a new round of military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, planning a shorter but higher-intensity operation, with targets possibly including Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone weapons depots. On the inventory front, LME copper inventories increased by 27,675 tons to 272,950 tons; Comex inventories increased by 3,078 tons to 723,798 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,427 tons to 23,787 tons, while BC copper warrants remained at 2,054 tons. As abnormal fluctuations appeared in U.S. financial markets, macroeconomic sentiment suddenly tightened. In addition, the U.S. copper import tariff policy remains unresolved, and the spread between U.S. copper and LME copper has weakened. Although it maintains a premium structure of about $0-200 per ton, this has significantly reduced the marginal arbitrage benefits of refined copper trade. In addition, LME copper inventories have shown continuous increases, which helps ease squeeze pressure. With the macro backdrop weak and fundamentals unclear, the current market should be viewed cautiously.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: (Zhu Xi, Practicing Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.81% to $15,995 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.19% to 120,870 yuan per ton. On the inventory front, LME inventories decreased by 192 tons to 280,674 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 253 tons to 90,791 tons. In terms of premiums and discounts, the LME 0-3 month spread remained negative; the imported nickel premium remained at 250 yuan per ton. On the news front, according to reports, executives from several major Chinese nickel producers plan to discuss coordinated production cuts at Indonesian battery material plants. Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia said the government does not plan to restrict nickel ore production, but is instead considering regulatory policies for oversupply of nickel refining products. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said the global nickel market will maintain a small surplus of 19,000 tons in 2026, reversing previous shortage forecasts, and expects the nickel surplus to expand to 70,000 tons in 2027, with demand reaching 4 million tons and production rising to 4.07 million tons. From a fundamental perspective, nickel ore prices, premiums, and sulfur prices weakened month-on-month, while due to climate, power, and other pressures, some links in the industrial chain saw production cuts in October, and news factors regarding production cuts have attracted market attention. In the short term, there may be some support from production-cut news, but actual implementation needs to be monitored. Indonesia policy should continue to be tracked, and macroeconomic disturbances should be guarded against.
Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: (Wang Heng, Practicing Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) Overnight, alumina AO2701 closed at 2,555 yuan per ton, down 1.31%. Open interest increased by 7,222 lots to 318,000 lots. Overnight LME closed at $3,009.5 per ton, down 1.05%, with inventories falling 100 tons to 236,000 tons. Shanghai aluminum AL2612 closed at 23,145 yuan per ton, down 0.19%, with open interest increasing by 1,090 lots to 256,000 lots. Aluminum alloy AD2612 closed at 22,585 yuan per ton, down 1.27%. Open interest increased by 523 lots to 21,721 lots; on the spot side, SMM alumina prices fell back to 2,653 yuan per ton. Aluminum ingot spot premiums narrowed to 270 yuan per ton. Foshan A00 quotes rose to 23,620 yuan per ton, at a discount of 80 yuan per ton to Wuxi A00. Aluminum rod processing fees were stable in many places, with Xinjiang, Nanchang, Guangdong, and Wuxi lowered by 20-50 yuan per ton; aluminum rod 1A60 series processing fees were lowered by 50 yuan per ton, while low-carbon 6/8 series were raised by 91 yuan per ton. Guangxi projects that reached full production after feeding at the end of September began to form obvious incremental output in October, combined with recent declines in bauxite sea freight, the cost support line moved further down, and alumina's rhythm shifted from bottoming to probing for a bottom. After the holiday, aluminum ingot destocking exceeded seasonal norms and fell to a ten-year low, and combined with persistently tight warrants, the November-December spread remained elevated, with the back structure not converging in the short term. However, as non-ferrous valuations continued to come under pressure before the late-October FOMC, short-term aluminum prices are still being treated with a oscillating rhythm. Attention should be paid to changes in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, overseas resumption rhythms, and the slope of domestic aluminum ingot destocking.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: (Wang Heng, Practicing Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) On the 22nd, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2612 contract closing at 8,565 yuan per ton, down 0.98% during the day, and open interest increasing by 26,986 lots to 261,300 lots. Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,246 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price remained stable at 8,750 yuan per ton, and the spot premium widened to 380 yuan per ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2612 contract closing at 36,670 yuan per ton, down 1.85% during the day. Open interest increased by 6,845 lots to 63,953 lots; the lowest deliverable price was lowered to 39,355 yuan per ton, and the spot premium widened to 5,630 yuan per ton. On the cost side, silicon coal declined, northern production increases continued to offset southwestern production cuts, and demand from the three major sectors contracted simultaneously. Low-priced supply from spot-futures traders was gradually digested, and spot-futures procurement volumes continued to decline, becoming the dominant marginal negative feedback. Industrial silicon is unlikely to warm up significantly in the short term. After the closed-door meeting of polysilicon leaders, production cuts by silicon material plants accelerated, with unexpected production cuts in Qinghai. Spot price support strengthened somewhat, but effective spot transactions were lacking, and the futures market had already priced in production cut expectations in advance. After the production cuts landed, it instead became a case of good news exhausted. If polysilicon continues to fluctuate at the bottom, it may attract some hedging buying, but with marginal demand declining, there is room for upward repair but it is difficult to see a reversal. If inventories continue to accumulate, the high basis structure may become further extreme.
Lithium Carbonate: (Zhu Xi, Practicing Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2701 fell 3.58% to 94,180 yuan per ton, with daily open interest decreasing by 2,344 lots to 452,000 lots. On the spot price side, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,350 yuan per ton to 99,350 yuan per ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,350 yuan per ton to 95,850 yuan per ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 2,000 yuan per ton to 91,000 yuan per ton. On the warrant side, warrant inventories decreased by 743 to 20,952 tons yesterday. On the supply side, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 777 tons month-on-month to 26,863 tons, of which spodumene lithium extraction increased by 814 tons month-on-month to 14,967 tons, lepidolite lithium extraction increased by 29 tons month-on-month to 3,184 tons, salt lake lithium extraction increased by 20 tons month-on-month to 5,741 tons, recycling lithium extraction decreased by 17 tons month-on-month to 2,483 tons, and lithium slag extraction decreased by 69 tons month-on-month to 488 tons; October lithium carbonate production is expected to decrease by 370 tons month-on-month to 118,071 tons. On the demand side, October ternary material production is expected to increase 3% month-on-month to 84,110 tons, lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase 4% month-on-month to 640,000 tons, lithium cobalt oxide production is expected to decrease 9% month-on-month to 5,760 tons, lithium manganese oxide production is expected to decrease 6% month-on-month to 10,400 tons; lithium battery production is expected to increase 6% month-on-month to 320.4GWh. On the inventory side, weekly inventories decreased by 4,093 tons month-on-month to 130,279 tons, of which upstream increased by 1,904 tons month-on-month to 34,019 tons, cathode plants decreased by 2,354 tons month-on-month to 37,255 tons, traders decreased by 2,540 tons month-on-month to 39,410 tons, and battery cell plants and others decreased by 1,103 tons month-on-month to 19,595 tons. Weekly data still show continuous destocking, but the pace has slowed month-on-month, and November production schedules are weakening month-on-month, weakening the strong reality; while export tax rebate policy adjustments and China-EU negotiations drag down forward export consumption expectations, causing weak expectations to be reinforced again. Attention should be paid to warrant inventories, market sentiment, lithium mining stock performance, and year-end supply-side disturbance risks.
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