On January 19, China's 2025 economic "report card" was officially released. Preliminary calculations indicate the annual gross domestic product reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, representing a 5.0% growth over the previous year when calculated at constant prices. This signifies that China's economic scale has surpassed the 140 trillion yuan threshold for the first time, successfully achieving the main targets and tasks for economic and social development, and marking the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This substantial "report card" was achieved against a complex and severe backdrop of drastic changes in the external environment and increasing domestic difficulties and challenges, making it particularly hard-won.
This massive "report card" was achieved against a complex and severe backdrop of drastic changes in the external environment and increasing domestic difficulties and challenges, making it particularly hard-won. Multiple experts stated that in 2025, the Chinese economy advanced under pressure, with its total scale reaching a new level and high-quality development achieving new successes. Having maintained an economic growth rate of 5% or above for three consecutive years, China continues to be the most stable and reliable engine for global economic growth. In the next stage, as more proactive and impactful macro policies continue to take effect, the fundamental conditions and underlying trend of China's long-term economic improvement remain unchanged, providing a solid foundation and conditions for maintaining stable and sound economic operation.
In 2025, China's economic aggregate broke through 140 trillion yuan, another historic leap following the breakthrough of 130 trillion yuan in 2024. Analyzed by quarter, growth rates were 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second, 4.8% in the third, and 4.5% in the fourth, achieving both a "quantitative leap" and a "qualitative improvement" for the full year, demonstrating the Chinese economy's strong resilience and endogenous strength. The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the performance of the national economy in 2025.
"For an economy of our super-large scale, achieving such stable development against a backdrop of intertwined risks and challenges is no easy feat," explained Kang Yi, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. He stated that in 2025, facing a complex and severe situation with drastic external changes and increasing domestic challenges, China implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, which not only effectively mitigated the adverse impacts of external environmental changes but also stabilized the foundation and consolidated the根基 of development amidst turbulence. In Kang Yi's view, "stability" was a prominent characteristic of the Chinese economy in 2025. The average surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, indicating overall stable employment; goods trade reached a new record high, and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.3 trillion... Globally, China's economic growth rate ranked among the top of major economies, making it the most stable and reliable engine for global growth, with its contribution to world economic growth estimated at around 30%.
Zhang Lianqi, President of the China Enterprise Financial Management Association, told reporters that analyzed by quarter, the growth rate showed a "steady adjustment" trend, starting high and then moderating. The strong start of 5.4% in the first quarter laid the foundation for annual growth, and although the 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter moderated, the 1.2% quarter-on-quarter growth still reflected the stability of economic operations. Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, believes the Chinese economy demonstrated three aspects that were "better than expected" in 2025: first, export growth exceeded expectations, maintaining strong momentum in a harsh external environment with annual growth of 6.1%, benefiting from the diversification of export markets and the continuous upgrading of the export structure; second, capital market performance exceeded expectations, with major breakthroughs in areas like AI significantly boosting market risk appetite; third, economic structural transformation exceeded expectations, with the rapid development of high-tech and emerging industries reflecting an acceleration in the shift between old and new growth drivers.
2025 marked the concluding year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and a year of significant importance in the process of Chinese modernization. This year, the cultivation and expansion of "new" growth drivers in the Chinese economy became more pronounced, with characteristics of development leaning towards innovation and quality becoming more distinct. The embodied intelligent robotics industry accelerated its commercial application.
Data shows that in 2025, China's innovation-driven development strategy was deeply implemented, with total national R&D expenditure reaching 3.9262 trillion yuan, and the R&D intensity reaching 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time; new quality productive forces transitioned from conceptual consensus to tangible development outcomes. The value-added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing as a share of total industrial value-added above designated size reached 36.8% and 17.1% respectively. The value-added of digital product manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3% compared to the previous year, and clean energy power generation above designated size grew by 8.8%. Summarizing the achievements in new quality productive forces, Kang Yi used four "strengths": "First, the hard strength of science and technology continuously leaped forward. China became the first country to possess over 5 million domestic valid invention patents, with PCT international patent applications ranking first globally for six consecutive years. Second, the momentum for industrial innovation gathered force. Emerging fields such as high-end equipment, green energy, and smart manufacturing continued to see investment and capacity expansion, with the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation yielding substantial results. Third, digital penetration significantly enhanced. The digital industry, digital consumption, and digital infrastructure expanded across all sectors, integrating into the production and operations of countless industries and the daily lives of millions of households. Fourth, green leadership was fully demonstrated. China accelerated the construction of a new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient, with the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption increasing by about 2 percentage points compared to the previous year."
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Golden Credit Rating, analyzed that in 2025, sectors representing new quality productive forces, exemplified by high-tech manufacturing, grew significantly faster, not only driving continuous economic transformation and upgrading but also providing strong pull to the overall economic growth rate. In 2025, driven by both policy support and strong market demand, the output of products like chips, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 10.9%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively, with these high-tech manufacturing products achieving double-digit output growth. Looking back over the past five years, China's economic achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are remarkable.
"During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic aggregate achieved 'four consecutive leaps,' successively reaching new levels of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, 130 trillion, and 140 trillion yuan. Such a large economic scale corresponds to tangible productive forces," Kang Yi stated, adding that this also means the substance of China's high-quality development is more substantial and its pace more stable. Over the five years, China's new quality productive forces grew steadily, its innovation index ranking entered the global top ten for the first time, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size achieved an average annual growth of 9.2%, digital technologies like AI and 5G flourished, empowering numerous industries; the clean and low-carbon transition of energy supply accelerated, and the market competitiveness of new energy products continuously strengthened; people's livelihoods were effectively safeguarded, with resident income growth keeping pace with economic growth. These achievements not only confirm the correctness and effectiveness of China's high-quality development path but also accumulate powerful momentum for future development.
In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index returned to expansion territory, and the Business Activity Expectation Index for the services sector stood at 56.4%, remaining in a high景气区间; macro policies continued to exert force, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds for 2026 already allocated in advance... The recovery of leading indicators and the release of policy dividends provide strong support for an economic "good start" in 2026. At the 8th CIIE, Chinese and foreign exhibitors were in constant attendance.
Recently, major international organizations have successively raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, expressing optimism about its development prospects. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook Report released on the 19th, raised its 2025 growth forecast for China by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, while also raising its growth expectation for China in 2026. "In 2026, conditions and support exist for China's economy to maintain a stable and improving trend," Kang Yi believes. From the perspective of development support, more proactive and impactful macro policies will safeguard the stable operation of the economy. 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and all sectors will focus on goals, vigorously promoting the implementation of key projects, which will help form a powerful合力 for driving development.
Multiple experts also hold a positive outlook on the economic prospects for 2026. Luo Zhiheng believes that to ensure economic operations in 2026 remain within a reasonable range and to solidify the foundation for the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, macro policies need to be appropriately intensified and work in concert. In the medium to long term, the core of economic recovery and improvement lies in enhancing endogenous momentum, which requires treating "increasing resident income" and "investing in people" as key levers for expanding domestic demand. Wang Qing stated that looking ahead to 2026, addressing macroeconomic pressures requires "walking on two legs": first, accelerating the development of sectors representing new quality productive forces, such as high-tech manufacturing, to rapidly strengthen new drivers; second, ensuring macro policies are effectively strengthened to stabilize traditional drivers while new ones are growing. "Challenges for the Chinese economy have never been absent, but opportunities have always been present," Kang Yi expressed. He emphasized the need to strengthen innovation drive, deepen reform and opening up, continuously strengthen the domestic circulation, promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, and strive for a good start and solid first steps for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
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