According to a report from Guotai Haitong, driven by the vehicle replacement policy, China's electric heavy truck market has experienced rapid growth, with penetration rates continuing to increase. In the first three quarters, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached 137,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 184%, surpassing the total for 2024, and the penetration rate further rose to 24.21%. Meanwhile, although the electrification level of heavy trucks in Europe and North America remains relatively low at this stage, initial signs of growth have emerged due to stricter carbon emission assessments and supportive subsidy policies. As the electric heavy truck market undergoes explosive growth, it is expected to create significant incremental space for the lithium battery industry, benefiting power battery and key material companies.
Key points from Guotai Haitong are as follows:
China: Vehicle Replacement Policy Drives New Energy Heavy Truck Market Into Rapid Growth Phase Under the dual impetus of the vehicle replacement policy and declining end prices, China's new energy heavy truck market is set for rapid growth in 2024, with sales anticipated to reach 82,100 units, a substantial year-on-year increase of 140%, and a penetration rate expected to reach 13.61%, effectively doubling compared to the previous year. Since 2025, as the vehicle replacement policy is further strengthened, market demand continues to rise. In the first three quarters, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 137,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 184%, already surpassing the total for 2024, while the penetration rate further rose to 24.21%. With the increasing advantages of new energy heavy trucks in terms of economic efficiency and environmental protection, it is expected that the penetration rate will rise to 35% by 2026 and potentially exceed 50% by 2027.
Europe: Carbon Emission Assessments Accelerate Electric Heavy Truck Market Progress Since 2023, the electric heavy truck market in Europe has been steadily accelerating due to stricter carbon emission assessments, the implementation of policies such as AFIR, and an increase in the supply of new models. In 2023, sales of electric heavy trucks in Europe surpassed 3,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about threefold, with penetration rates exceeding 1%. In 2024 and the first half of 2025, electric heavy truck sales are projected to reach 4,291 and 2,410 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35% and 13%, with penetration rates rising to 1.4% and 1.6%. Regionally, countries in Western Europe, such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands, are seeing rapid growth in the electric heavy truck market, while Southern and Eastern Europe still primarily rely on diesel heavy trucks.
United States: Current Electrification Level of Heavy Trucks is Relatively Low Currently, the electrification level of heavy trucks in the U.S. remains low, with penetration rates below 1%. However, driven by policies such as clean heavy vehicle subsidy programs and tax credits, the U.S. electric heavy truck market has shown initial signs of growth. In 2024, sales of electric heavy trucks in the U.S. reached 1,103 units, a year-on-year increase of 34%, marking about a fourfold increase compared to 2022.
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Risk warning: Infrastructure development may fall short of expectations; subsidy policies may be less favorable than anticipated.
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