🌟【Bosera Market Review December 4】Mixed Performance Across Indices, ChiNext Gains Over 1%
📝 Daily Perspective Today, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with total market turnover shrinking to 1.56 trillion yuan. The latest U.S. ADP employment data for November revealed a decline of 32,000 jobs, falling short of expectations. As the final employment report before the Fed’s December policy meeting—and with the official nonfarm payrolls delayed due to the government shutdown—this "mini nonfarm" report gained heightened significance. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December now stands near 90%. The weak data further reinforced this expectation, suggesting the upcoming meeting may feature a rate cut alongside hawkish rhetoric. Domestically, December marks a policy-sensitive window for key meetings, though market expectations for additional stimulus remain subdued. With the economy in a weak recovery phase, equity markets may continue to oscillate in the short term, warranting a balanced allocation strategy.
🔥 Market Highlights - **U.S. "Mini Nonfarm" Posts Largest Drop in 2.5 Years, Boosting Fed Rate Cut Bets** The November ADP report showed private-sector job losses of 32,000—the steepest decline since March 2023 and well below the expected 10,000-job gain. FedWatch now prices in a nearly 90% chance of a December rate cut. *Brief Analysis*: The unexpected contraction in U.S. employment signals rapid cooling in the labor market, stoking growth concerns and solidifying expectations for Fed easing. Post-data, the dollar weakened while U.S. stocks edged higher, reflecting a market recalibration between economic slowdown and policy support.
- **SASAC Advances SOE Reform with Value-Creation Push** On November 28, China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) convened a conference in the Three Gorges Dam area to accelerate state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) efforts to benchmark against global leaders. The meeting emphasized enhancing strategic security, industrial leadership, public welfare, and comprehensive impact, with plans for specialized evaluations and targeted guidance. *Brief Analysis*: The conference underscored SOEs’ focus on functional value and core competitiveness, signaling deeper reforms. Progress in key sectors and value-creation capabilities may benefit industry leaders long-term.
- **State Council Approves Yangtze River Delta Spatial Plan (2023-2035)** The plan prioritizes metropolitan-area integration, leveraging Shanghai’s leading role and coordinating development with Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Ningbo clusters to build a world-class city agglomeration. *Brief Analysis*: Approval marks a new phase in regional integration, emphasizing innovation corridors like the G60 Sci-Tech Valley, industrial relocation to northern Jiangsu and Anhui, and ecological safeguards. Clear land-use and ecological red lines will underpin high-quality growth.
👉 **Market Recap** On December 4, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.06% to 3,875.79, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.40% to 13,006.72. The ChiNext Index climbed 1.01% to 3,067.48, and the STAR 100 surged 1.52% to 1,362.46. Sector-wise, machinery, electronics, and defense led gains (up 0.90%, 0.78%, and 0.55%), whereas diversified, beauty care, and social services lagged (down 2.11%, 1.89%, and 1.62%). Advancers outnumbered decliners 1,446 to 3,667.
💰 **Liquidity Watch** Turnover dipped to 1.56 trillion yuan, with margin debt settling at 2.48 trillion yuan, down slightly from the previous session.
*Data source: Tonghuashun, as of December 4, 2025. Investments involve risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*
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