Motorists should brace for another shift in domestic fuel prices, as the latest adjustment window for refined oil products is set to open at midnight on August 28th. Drawing on insights from multiple institutions, the upcoming change is widely anticipated to be an increase.
Analysts at Zhuochuang Information point out that during this pricing cycle, spanning from August 14th to August 28th, international crude oil prices experienced a rise followed by a fall. However, the crude oil change rate has persistently held within positive territory. This trend strongly suggests that the retail price adjustment for refined oil products at midnight on August 28th will likely trigger an upward revision. Similarly, an analyst from Jinlianchuang asserts that the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices is a foregone conclusion.
The initial upward momentum in international crude oil prices, which saw six consecutive days of gains within this cycle, was fueled by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and heightened concerns over global supply disruptions due to potential blockages in the Strait of Hormuz. Although prices reversed course later in the period amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions, the change rate remained firmly in positive territory.
Data monitoring models from Zhuochuang Information show that as of the close of foreign markets on August 26th, the reference crude oil change rate for the ninth working day stood at 8.18%. This translates to an expected increase of 360 yuan per tonne for gasoline and diesel. When broken down by volume, this equates to price hikes of approximately 0.28 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 0.30 yuan per liter for 95# gasoline, and 0.31 yuan per liter for 0# diesel.
So far this year, domestic fuel prices have undergone sixteen rounds of adjustment, characterized by a pattern of ten increases, five decreases, and one instance of suspension. Notably, in response to the impact of rising international oil prices, the state implemented control measures on refined oil product prices for two consecutive rounds. If the anticipated increase materializes in this round, the 2026 adjustment pattern will shift to eleven increases, five decreases, and one suspension.
Looking ahead, the next retail fuel price adjustment window is scheduled to open at midnight on September 11th, 2026, following the ten-working-day principle. Ping An Securities analysis suggests that the standoff between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz persists, alongside the potential for severe US economic sanctions against Iran. Oil tanker traffic through the strait remains below pre-conflict levels, and crude oil exports from the Middle East continue to face obstacles. These supply constraints, combined with the ongoing peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere and historically low US crude oil inventories, indicate that Brent oil prices will likely find strong support around the $80 per barrel mark in the short term.
An analyst from Jinlianchuang notes that in the coming week, if the US and Iran advance peace talks, international oil prices may experience a volatile downward trend. However, should either side adopt a more hardline stance again, the possibility of oil prices returning to an upward trajectory cannot be ruled out.
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