Analyst Christopher LaFemina from Jefferies recently wrote in a report to clients, "It turns out we are not bullish enough on copper." He subsequently raised the 2030 copper price target significantly to $8 per pound, equivalent to $17,636 per ton—the highest known copper price forecast on Wall Street currently.
For reference, the latest COMEX copper quote is approximately $6.34 per pound, and LME copper is around $13,583 per ton. This means LaFemina's 2030 target price is about 30% higher than current levels.
Before his tenure at Jefferies, LaFemina spent over a decade in metals and mining research at Lehman Brothers and Barclays, making him one of Wall Street's most seasoned metals analysts. He stated directly in the report, "We currently have the highest copper price forecast on Wall Street because we see strong U.S. industrial demand and supply remains tight."
AI Spending Wave Fuels Direct Copper Benefits
LaFemina's core logic is straightforward: the massive construction of AI data centers and what he terms the "powering up America" theme—referring to grid and infrastructure upgrades—will drive a material acceleration in copper demand.
Goldman Sachs previously estimated that AI capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers will surge to $800 billion this year. These investments ultimately materialize as physical infrastructure, and copper is an irreplaceable core material for power transmission.
LaFemina's assessment is that there is considerable room for copper and aluminum prices to rise before they truly begin to hinder macroeconomic growth.
Supply Side Challenges: Two Major Mines Encounter Issues
While demand is one side of the equation, supply presents another. A team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Aurelia Waltham noted that the recovery pace of copper mine supply this year has been significantly slower than anticipated.
The firm revised down its 2026 global copper mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons, representing about 1.5% of global mine supply. Approximately 200,000 tons of this reduction is attributed to combined issues at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and the Democratic Republic of Congo's Kamoa-Kakula mine, with both mines not expected to return to full production until 2028.
Simultaneously, U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 exceeded expectations, further tightening the supply-demand balance in markets outside the U.S. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories to accumulate 900,000 tons in 2026, up from a prior forecast of 550,000 tons—a move driven by companies stockpiling ahead of potential tariff implementation.
Consequently, Goldman Sachs raised its LME copper price forecasts for end-2026 and the 2027 average to $13,735 and $13,800 per ton, respectively, a significant increase from previous projections of $12,465 and $12,150.
Goldman Sachs Outlines Three Scenarios, Price Range from $12,600 to Over $14,000
The bank also presented three price scenarios, covering the main uncertainties currently facing the market.
Scenario One: Sustained Strait of Hormuz Blockade. Demand decline and supply reduction due to sulfur shortages roughly offset each other, but a significant contraction in global risk appetite could push LME copper prices down to a fundamental support level around $12,600 before recovering upward.
Scenario Two: U.S. Announces Copper Tariffs (Effective January 2027). If tariffs are announced in June 2026 and take effect in January 2027, companies would accelerate imports in the second half of the year, driving copper prices above $14,000. However, once tariffs are formally implemented and imports halt, prices in 2027 would subsequently decline.
Scenario Three: Clear Announcement of No Copper Tariffs. Import demand fades, and markets outside the U.S. return to a state of supply surplus, potentially pushing the average 2027 copper price down to $12,800.
Wall Street Consensus Broadly Aligned
Beyond Jefferies and Goldman Sachs, HSBC informed clients last week that "metals prices are generally in an upward cycle, with some commodities driven by supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts and strong structural demand." The bank also warned of a "super squeeze" risk for commodities.
Analysts at JPMorgan similarly communicated to clients that copper's upward cycle is being driven by tightening supply, accelerated grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification.
From Jefferies and Goldman Sachs to HSBC and JPMorgan, the assessments of Wall Street's primary metals research teams are converging: copper is entering a new phase of structurally tight supply, and the path for higher LME copper prices may be opening up.
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