Guosen Securities has released a research report maintaining an "Outperform" rating on the commercial retail sector. While current gold price fluctuations have a short-term emotional impact on the sector, the fundamental impact is expected to be relatively stable, as the industry's growth logic has shifted towards relying on brand building, technological innovation, and cultural storytelling to generate "alpha returns." In the future, AI is expected to help open up new growth curves while continuously empowering brand business development. The main views of Guosen Securities are as follows: Gold Jewelry: Price Volatility Doesn't Change Long-Term Growth for Leaders. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with COMEX gold rising 12.28% from the start of the year to January 29, but then falling 8.35% in a single day on January 30. Although these fluctuations create short-term sentiment swings for the sector, the actual fundamental impact is projected to be relatively contained, given that the industry's growth is increasingly driven by "alpha" from brand strength, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural narrative. On one hand, referencing the surge in panic buying and sustained investment enthusiasm for months following the 2013 gold price correction, companies focused on investment gold products still have room for further short-term earnings growth. On the other hand, Hong Kong-based jewelry brands with competitive pricing advantages and strong operational capabilities in Hong Kong and Macau, alongside leading companies that have demonstrated superior product design, differentiation, or comprehensive advantages in recent years, are poised to strengthen their business edges and achieve sustained high growth. AI+ Resellers: Major model providers intensively launched AI red packet campaigns during the Spring Festival, aiming to capture AI application entry points. As user habits for AI usage develop, the industry chain is expected to benefit continuously. Concurrently, ongoing innovations in overseas AI applications are enriching commercial monetization models. As intermediaries in the chain, online service providers, leveraging their deep cooperation with leading e-commerce platforms and long-term accumulated expertise in consumer insights and full-funnel brand strategy formulation, possess a first-mover advantage in quickly building AI-powered content generation capabilities. They are well-positioned to pioneer new growth trajectories by continuously empowering brand business development. Investment Recommendation: Maintain "Outperform" Sector Rating. After certain gains in domestic and overseas markets by the end of 2025, market volatility has increased. From a perspective of bull market rotation, the consumer sector might see some elasticity in the new year, potentially aided by incremental policy support. 1) Gold Jewelry: The industry is entering its peak consumption season at year-end, with overall sector valuations at low levels. Short-term gold price swings haven't impacted the core growth logic of leading players. Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business and those strong in fixed-price product offerings are still expected to achieve stable growth. Recommendations: Caibai Co.,Ltd., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd., Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group, CHJ Jewellery. 2) Beauty & Personal Care: The sector has generally retreated to lower levels, with traditional leaders showing some signs of inflection. The industry is being driven by a relatively dense schedule of new product launches early in the year. Companies that have built platform-based mechanisms can ensure sustained and certain growth through organic means and expansion. Recommendations: Proya, Maogeping, Shanghai Jahwa, Dengkang Oral Care, Ruoyuchen. 3) Cross-Border E-commerce: Leading enterprises demonstrated strong risk resilience over the past year. The application of AI+ in channels and products is expected to provide continuous fundamental catalysts for internal cost efficiency and product innovation. Recommendations: Yiwu China Commodities City, Anker Innovations, Focus Technology. 4) Offline Retail: The year-end and beginning of the year constitute a peak sales season for offline retail. Furthermore, a sustained recovery in CPI would positively impact supermarket same-store sales. Simultaneously, ongoing renovations and adjustments by multiple supermarkets, along with the future launch of private labels, present multiple positive factors. Recommendations: Miniso Group, Jiajiayue Group, Chongqing Department Store, Yonghui Superstores. Risk warnings: Consumer recovery falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; changes in company management.
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