According to reports, as SpaceX (SPCX.US) strong earnings boosted technology stocks, risk appetite in global financial markets recovered, and the cryptocurrency market also rebounded. Bitcoin rose more than 2.4% at one point on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of $84,853, shaking off its previous prolonged sluggish trading state. At the same time, the number of open Bitcoin futures contracts rebounded, demand for bullish options increased, and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract capital inflows, indicating that investor interest in cryptocurrencies is recovering.
This Bitcoin rebound is closely related to the rise in technology stocks. The strong results announced by SpaceX reignited market enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI)-related investments, prompting investors to increase their holdings of risk assets again. Although the market still has doubts about the sustainability of the AI investment boom, the positive sentiment brought by the rise in technology stocks has already spread to the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, the latest regulatory developments in the United States have also provided support to the market. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) published final regulatory measures for payment stablecoin issuing institutions, which the market viewed as a positive signal that the regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry is becoming clearer.
In addition to improved macroeconomic market sentiment, capital flows in the derivatives market are also driving the rebound in Bitcoin prices. According to data compiled by Coinglass, after weeks of deleveraging, the number of open contracts in Bitcoin perpetual futures has risen again, indicating that leveraged trading activity in the market is gradually recovering. An increase in the number of open perpetual futures contracts usually means that more funds are re-entering the derivatives market. However, this change itself cannot directly prove that the market has formed a sustained upward trend, and further judgment is still needed based on funding rates, trading direction, and spot demand.
Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at cryptocurrency trading firm Wintermute, said that strong corporate earnings and renewed market interest in AI investment have jointly pushed risk assets higher, even though international oil prices remain elevated and noticeably volatile. However, he believes that Bitcoin's current move looks more like a recovery rebound after a previous decline than the clear beginning of a new upward trend. De Maere pointed out that if Bitcoin can approach $87,000 with strong upward momentum, market conditions may change rapidly, and the possibility of further gains would also increase.
At the same time, the Bitcoin options market has also released a bullish signal. According to data from cryptocurrency exchange Deribit, investors have shown relatively high demand for Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000, respectively, indicating that some traders are positioning for further price increases. However, the market still has different interpretations of the drivers of this rebound. Himanshu Sahay, co-founder of cryptocurrency lending institution Arch Lending, said that during the previous decline in Bitcoin, a large number of long positions in the market had already been liquidated, and the recent price rebound has been driven to a considerable extent by short covering. He believes that the market is currently mainly in a stage of readjusting position structure, rather than an upward move driven by a large amount of newly added leveraged funds. This means that although Bitcoin prices have rebounded significantly, whether the rebound can continue still depends on whether more real buying enters the market later.
Against this backdrop, capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important basis for analysts to judge market demand. Data shows that over the past month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a cumulative inflow of about $2.3 billion, reflecting a recovery in investor interest in Bitcoin. Among them, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) became the biggest beneficiary, absorbing most of the funds flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period. However, blockchain data research institution Glassnode reminded that although spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows again, the related trading volume has not increased significantly at the same time. Glassnode researchers pointed out in a report released on Wednesday that if ETFs can repeatedly see inflows while trading volume continues to expand, it would more strongly prove that market demand is expanding, rather than being driven only by capital activity on a few individual trading days. Therefore, although recent capital flows have improved, the market still needs more evidence to confirm that Bitcoin has re-entered a sustained upward phase.
Regarding the outlook, some industry participants remain optimistic. Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said he believes Bitcoin still has ample upward momentum and is expected to move higher in the future. Overall, this Bitcoin rebound has been driven by multiple factors, including the rise in technology stocks, improved risk appetite, regulatory progress, and position adjustments in the derivatives market. Continued inflows into spot ETFs and increased demand for bullish options have also provided some support to the market. However, the key issue widely watched by analysts remains whether this rebound can attract broader new capital, rather than relying only on short covering and the recovery of leveraged trading. In the short term, price performance around $87,000, the sustainability of ETF inflows, and whether spot trading volume can expand in tandem will become important indicators for judging Bitcoin's subsequent trend.
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