Banking Sector Defies Market Downturn: Billion-Dollar Bank ETF Approaches Half-Year Line, Inflection Point Ahead?

Deep News04-02

On April 2nd, A-shares opened lower in the morning session, with the three major indices collectively in negative territory. However, the banking sector bucked the trend and moved upward. The price of the 10-billion-yuan heavyweight Bank ETF Huabao (512800) rose by 0.5% during the session, approaching its half-year moving average. State-owned large banks performed notably well, with Agricultural Bank Of China Limited (ABC) gaining over 2%. China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of China all rose more than 1%. Huaxia Bank, China CITIC Bank, and Ping An Bank were also among the top gainers.

Throughout March, geopolitical risks in the Middle East unsettled market sentiment, yet the banking sector frequently demonstrated resilience against the broader market trend. The CSI Bank Index accumulated a gain of 3.83% for the period, ranking first among all CSI All Share Secondary Industry Indices. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index, the ChiNext Index, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 6.51%, 3.79%, and 7.02% respectively during the same period. This resulted in the banking sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by an excess return of 10.34%.

Note: The annual performance of the CSI Bank Index over the last five full years is as follows: 2025: +6.79%; 2024: +34.71%; 2023: -7.27%; 2022: -8.78%; 2021: -4.41%. The composition of the index's constituents is adjusted periodically according to its compilation rules. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huafu Securities indicated that the banking sector's fundamental characteristic of low valuation remains unchanged. Despite undergoing a valuation recovery over 2024 and 2025, the sector is currently closer to the middle phase of a re-rating rather than its conclusion. The drivers for further upside are expected to expand beyond the singular logic of high dividends to include defensive qualities, fundamental recovery, and structural growth. Potential excess returns may stem from the steady re-rating of high-dividend state-owned large banks and the return of growth premiums for high-quality city commercial banks. Support for the sector is anticipated from both policy measures and stabilizing net interest margins.

Changjiang Securities also noted that in an environment of systematically declining market risk appetite, bank stocks—having adjusted for three consecutive quarters—showcase prominent defensive value. The sector is currently near relative lows seen in early October last year and late January this year, offering a margin of safety. Furthermore, it features low PB-ROE valuations, positive earnings trends, and a gradual digestion of selling pressure from sources like index funds.

The Bank ETF (512800) and its feeder funds (Class A: 240019; Class C: 006697) passively track the CSI Bank Index. Their constituent holdings include 42 listed banks from the A-share market, making them efficient tools for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector. The Bank ETF (512800) has a recent scale of nearly 12 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover exceeding 800 million yuan since the start of 2025. It is the largest and most liquid among the 10 banking sector ETFs in the A-share market.

Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc.

ETF fee information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, subscription/redemption agencies may charge a commission of up to 0.5%, which includes relevant fees collected by stock exchanges and registration institutions. Feeder fund fee information: The subscription fee rate (front-end load) for the Huabao CSI Bank ETF Feeder Fund (Class A) is a flat fee of 1,000 RMB per subscription for amounts of 2 million RMB or more; 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB; and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days; 0.5% for holding periods between 7 days (inclusive) and 180 days; 0.25% for holding periods between 180 days (inclusive) and 1 year; and 0% for holding periods of 1 year (inclusive) or longer. No sales service fee is charged. The Huabao CSI Bank ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days and 0% for holding periods of 7 days (inclusive) or longer. The sales service fee is 0.4%.

Risk提示: The Bank ETF passively tracks the CSI Bank Index, which has a base date of December 31, 2004, and was launched on July 15, 2013. The composition of the index's constituents is adjusted periodically according to its compilation rules. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute investment advice in any form, nor do they represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk等级 as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a Balanced (C3) or higher risk profile. Any information appearing in this article is for reference only, and investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts contained herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks; the past performance of a fund does not guarantee its future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Invest cautiously.

A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for these stocks.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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