Initial US-Iran Talks Commence in Switzerland, with Ceasefire Memorandum Criticized as "Worst Document in 52 Years"

Deep News18:51

The first round of negotiations between the United States and Iran following the signing of a ceasefire memorandum of understanding commenced on the afternoon of June 21 local time in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, with technical preparatory meetings held by both sides that morning.

US Vice President Vance and Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf had earlier led their respective delegations to Switzerland, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Munir also participating in the technical-level talks.

Vance stated at the outset of the negotiations that "significant progress" had been made in US-Iran talks "over the past few hours" and anticipated "further progress in relevant areas". Former US President Trump remarked that if a deal with Iran could not be reached, the US might consider imposing tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis met in Bürgenstock on the morning of the 20th, marking the Iranian delegation's first formal event in Switzerland. The Iranian delegation also met with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed, who is acting as a mediator.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that Prime Minister Shehbaz and General Munir arrived in Bürgenstock to participate in and continue supporting negotiations for implementing the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum, and both met with Vice President Vance.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri stated on the 21st that the Iran-US talks are expected to last one day. The Iranian delegation held talks with the mediating delegations from Pakistan and Qatar that morning, followed by quadrilateral talks involving Iran, the US, Qatar, and Pakistan in the afternoon.

Bagheri noted that the Iran-US memorandum explicitly stipulates that a prerequisite for launching final agreement negotiations is the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Iran believes the US has not implemented this clause, and Israel continues to violate its commitments, stating, "This issue is a main topic of this round of talks." He added that topics such as unfreezing Iran's frozen or restricted assets and issuing licenses for Iranian oil sales are also on the agenda.

US Proposal for IAEA Chief to Join Talks Rejected

US news outlet Axios, citing informed sources, reported that the US-Iran talks focus on Iran's nuclear issue and the Israel-Lebanon situation. The US hopes the first round will lead to Iran allowing UN inspectors access to nuclear facilities previously bombed by the US and Israel. In exchange, the US would permit Iran to use some frozen funds for humanitarian purchases.

A source close to the Iranian negotiation team stated that the US had proposed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi participate in the talks, but Iran opposed this.

US broadcaster CBS, citing a diplomatic source involved in the talks, reported that the first-round agenda included an added emergency meeting on a ceasefire between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel. Vance also stated that the first round aims to "establish a practical framework and negotiation mechanism," with technical expert-level working consultations potentially continuing in Switzerland after the initial high-level talks conclude.

Former President Trump posted on social media on the 20th, stating that the Strait of Hormuz should remain toll-free both during and after the 60-day temporary ceasefire. He threatened that if a final deal with Iran is not reached, the US might consider imposing related tolls to compensate for US costs in "guarding" the Middle East region.

Separately, according to Iranian media reports, Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterated on the 21st that Iran will not give up its right to uranium enrichment and emphasized that Iran has clearly stated it will not manufacture nuclear weapons.

Expert Analysis: Memorandum Vague, Resembles a "Wish List"

Washington Post foreign affairs columnist Ignatius recently wrote that the memorandum aimed at halting the US-Iran war is vague in content. Iranian authorities are well aware of former President Trump's weaknesses; Trump portrays withdrawal from the battlefield as a victory, but practical issues persist. The key is how the memorandum translates into a verifiable framework to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Ignatius analyzed that the ceasefire agreement's observation indicators can be divided into several obvious points. It was the correct decision for Trump, who initiated the war, to now decide to halt it to prevent further harm; Trump was correct to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it feels somewhat like paying a ransom; Trump was also right to include Lebanon in the ceasefire scope, helping curb the endless stalemate between Israel and Hezbollah and allowing the Lebanese army to attempt to reclaim sovereignty.

However, this memorandum resembles a wish list more than a formal agreement, with almost all major issues aside from reopening the Strait of Hormuz left for negotiation over the next 60 days.

Ignatius pointed out that the view of former Citizens (CIA) General Counsel Smith is shared by many lawyers and diplomats: "In my 52-year foreign policy career, I have never seen a document drafted so poorly."

Ignatius analyzed that Trump hastily exited the conflict, only vaguely addressing several key nuclear issues. Iran merely "reaffirmed" its long-standing claim of not developing nuclear weapons; Iran will discuss future limits on uranium enrichment but made no commitment to close any nuclear facilities; Iran will address existing stocks of weapons-grade enriched uranium, possibly diluting them under IAEA supervision, but not removing them from Iran.

The agreement leaves more ambiguities to be clarified, such as Trump stating Iran can retain ballistic missiles, that Iran can resume collecting Hormuz Strait tolls after the 60-day period, and that Iran can retrieve frozen assets for any use after the agreement is signed.

Ignatius noted that the final agreement will include a "permanent cessation of war on all fronts," but can Iran-aligned groups like the Yemeni Houthis, Iraqi Shiite militias, and Lebanon's Hezbollah be constrained? "What puzzles me most is that the US leverage to make progress on these issues is Trump's threat that he might go to war again. After several threats of severe action over the past four months that amounted to little, such statements now lack credibility."

Netanyahu Orders Ceasefire but Refuses Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon

Israeli media reported on the 20th that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Defense Ministry have instructed the Israeli military to ceasefire in Lebanon, but troops have not withdrawn from areas they control in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu reiterated that the Israeli military will remain in southern Lebanon "as long as necessary."

Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing a security source, stated that Israel's "policy in southern Lebanon remains unchanged," with the military continuing to respond to any "violations of the ceasefire agreement" by Hezbollah. Over the past two days, the Israeli military struck over 300 Hezbollah targets, killing approximately 100 militants.

Netanyahu reiterated that the Israeli military will remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary, and he has instructed the military to respond forcefully to any Hezbollah attacks and take action to eliminate threats against Israeli forces. The military will continue to "operate freely" in its controlled areas in southern Lebanon to clear Hezbollah military infrastructure.

Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that in the past and present, the Israeli military's "operations to eliminate threats" inside Lebanon are unrestricted.

It was reported that Israel and Hezbollah previously agreed to a renewed ceasefire in Lebanon starting at 4 p.m. local time on the 19th, but it was not effectively implemented. The Israeli military stated on the 20th that since midnight that day, Hezbollah had launched over 50 projectiles at Israeli soldiers operating in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military, in turn, conducted strikes overnight against dozens of Hezbollah military infrastructure and militant targets in southern Lebanon.

According to Lebanon's National News Agency on the 20th, Israel began multiple rounds of airstrikes on the Nabatieh area in southern Lebanon in the early hours, causing casualties. A map recently released by the Israeli military shows it controls an area extending approximately 10 kilometers into Lebanese territory from the temporary Israel-Lebanon border, which Israel refers to as a "security zone."

Iran Ships Out 20 Million Barrels of Crude

Bloomberg reported on the 20th that after the US military lifted the blockade on Iranian ports, Iran resumed loading crude oil at the Kharg Island terminal, a key oil export hub, restarting shipments halted for six weeks.

Furthermore, Bloomberg's compilation of shipping data shows that after the US and Iran signed the ceasefire memorandum on the 17th, a total of 11 tankers departed from Iran's Chabahar port last week, carrying approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil in total.

Shipping data indicates Iran shipped 20 million barrels of oil last week, showing Iran is accelerating moving oil to market, becoming an initial winner from the US-Iran temporary agreement.

The latest vessel tracking data shows three very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are docked at terminals west of Kharg Island, each capable of carrying about 2 million barrels of crude. Kharg Island hosts Iran's most critical oil loading infrastructure, accounting for about 90% of Iran's crude shipments.

According to European Union satellite imagery captured earlier on the 20th, two of the tankers were already docked, with the third approaching the terminal. All three tankers had transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf on the 18th, meaning Iran swiftly moved empty tankers into the Persian Gulf the day after the memorandum was signed on the 17th, preparing to load crude at Kharg Island.

Another group of tankers that had been anchored off Kharg Island for weeks also began moving toward the Strait of Hormuz, likely preparing to transport crude out of the Persian Gulf. These VLCCs appear to have recently left Kharg Island and are currently near Lavan Island in the southern Persian Gulf.

With at least 20 tankers of various sizes still anchored east of Kharg Island, it suggests Iran may still have substantial crude oil volumes awaiting export.

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