Abstract
Canadian National Railway will report its quarter ending October 21, 2025 results on January 30, 2026 Pre-Market; the preview assesses revenue, profitability, EPS trajectory, and consensus positioning into the date.
Market Forecast
Consensus projections for the quarter ending October 21, 2025 indicate Canadian National Railway’s revenue at USD 4.44 billion (+0.78% year over year), EBIT at USD 1.72 billion, adjusted EPS at USD 1.98 (+1.41% year over year), and a modestly softer EBIT margin versus prior-year comparable. The company’s reported revenue mix is led by Freight at USD 3.99 billion and Other at USD 0.17 billion, with outlook emphasis on network fluidity, balanced pricing, and cost discipline to support gross margin and net profit margin trends.
Freight remains the most promising segment, anchored by diversified commodity flows and intermodal demand; last quarter Freight revenue was USD 3.99 billion (+YoY momentum implied by segment mix), while Other contributed USD 0.17 billion with limited growth, positioning core transport volumes and pricing as primary drivers.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter (fiscal quarter ended October 21, 2025), Canadian National Railway reported revenue of USD 4.17 billion (+1.34% year over year), gross profit margin of 57.43%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 1.14 billion, net profit margin of 27.35%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.83 (+6.40% year over year). Quarter-on-quarter net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 2.82%, reflecting normalization after a strong prior period and targeted efficiency investments.
Main business highlights included Freight revenue of USD 3.99 billion, supported by resilient intermodal, grain, and automotive carloads, with Other revenue at USD 0.17 billion; pricing discipline and service reliability helped preserve margins amid fuel and labor cost variability.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business – Freight
Freight is expected to carry the quarter with projected revenue aligned to USD 4.44 billion total company sales and EBIT near USD 1.72 billion. Volume dynamics across intermodal, grain, and automotive have held stable into the quarter ending October 21, 2025, while pricing programs continue to offset input cost changes. Operational fluidity and transit-time improvements should underpin gross profit margin preservation, though any congestion or weather disruptions could limit upside. The company’s network scale and balanced commodity exposure reduce volatility relative to single-end-market carriers, helping stabilize earnings per share performance in the near term. With adjusted EPS forecast at USD 1.98, incremental margin capture from productivity and locomotive utilization remains a focal point for the quarter.
Most Promising Business – Intermodal and Diversified Freight
Intermodal within Freight stands as the most promising sub-segment given consistent container flows and contractual pricing frameworks. The prior quarter’s Freight revenue of USD 3.99 billion shows the base from which intermodal strength can compound, and the company’s forecast for EPS growth (+1.41% year over year to USD 1.98) suggests modest operating leverage. Continued demand from consumer goods, e-commerce logistics, and cross-border movements is expected to support revenue steadiness. Cost actions, equipment turn improvements, and service reliability can enhance EBIT of USD 1.72 billion, though exposure to port activity and macro retail trends remains a watch point. Volume recovery in select industrials and automotive could complement the intermodal base, providing a buffer against seasonal softness elsewhere.
Stock Price Drivers – Margin Trajectory and Volume Mix
The biggest stock price drivers in this print will be margin trajectory and volume mix relative to forecasts. On margins, investors will be looking at whether the gross profit margin remains near the 57.43% level and how net profit margin evolves from the prior quarter’s 27.35% amid fuel cost trends and labor efficiency. Volume mix will be scrutinized for signs of durable growth in intermodal and grain, given their contribution to network utilization and price realization. Any deviation from the forecasted USD 4.44 billion revenue or USD 1.98 adjusted EPS will likely recalibrate sentiment, with the EBIT outcome of USD 1.72 billion serving as a bridge to management’s narrative on cost control and service quality. Clarity on capital allocation and capital efficiency, including rolling stock investments and technology deployment, could also influence valuation, especially if it ties to improved throughput and lower unit costs.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent previews, the majority stance tilts cautiously bullish, highlighting resilient volume trends and guarded margin preservation into the quarter ending October 21, 2025. Several institutional notes point to disciplined pricing and operational execution as supports for the USD 1.98 adjusted EPS forecast, while acknowledging that EBIT of USD 1.72 billion implies only modest year-over-year growth. Firms with balanced-to-positive views cite achievable revenue of USD 4.44 billion and stable demand in intermodal and bulk commodities, framing upside as dependent on service reliability and cost containment. The bullish side emphasizes Canadian National Railway’s capacity to navigate fuel and labor costs without substantial erosion to the gross margin, and sees the network’s balanced exposure as a mitigant to sector volatility around North American freight. The majority view expects an in-line to slight-beat setup on EPS, conditioned on steady operations and the absence of network disruptions, with any improvement in carload momentum likely to drive positive revisions.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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