On the evening of October 20, Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ, 09696.HK) released its earnings forecast for the first three quarters of 2026, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to range between RMB 5.1 billion and RMB 6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 2,734.97% to 3,235.26%. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to reach RMB 5.03 billion to RMB 5.93 billion, up 6,957.09% to 8,219.79% year-on-year.
From the explosive first-half results to the further expansion of profit scale in the first three quarters, Tianqi Lithium Corporation has seen a business recovery driven by the rebound in lithium prices. This is partly attributable to both higher volumes and rising prices of lithium products, and also related to increased investment income from its important associated company, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM).
Lithium Price Recovery Drives Business Turnaround, Net Profit Expected to Rise Up to 32 Times
Tianqi Lithium Corporation stated in its announcement that, benefiting from multiple factors including the development of the new energy industry and growth in downstream demand, the average selling prices of the company's main lithium products increased significantly compared to the same period last year, and revenue for the reporting period is expected to rise substantially year-on-year. This change was already foreshadowed in the first-half results. According to the interim report, from January to June 2026, the company achieved revenue of RMB 12.242 billion, up 153.32% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.242 billion, up 4,925.46% year-on-year; and net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.212 billion, up 21.51% year-on-year.
In terms of revenue composition, Tianqi Lithium Corporation's business primarily consists of two major segments: lithium concentrate and lithium compounds and derivatives. In the first half of 2026, the company's lithium concentrate business generated revenue of RMB 5.122 billion, up 115.18% year-on-year, while lithium compounds and derivatives revenue reached RMB 7.101 billion, up 190.76% year-on-year. Their gross margins stood at 74.19% and 57.35% respectively, rising by 19.96 and 31.77 percentage points.
The substantial earnings growth stems from the strong cyclical nature of the lithium industry, with Tianqi Lithium Corporation benefiting from both higher volumes and prices. Data from Shanghai Metals Market showed that in the first half of the year, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was RMB 163,500 per tonne, up 132.2% year-on-year. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that in the first half, the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was RMB 153,000 per tonne, up 126.9% year-on-year.
Regarding the outlook, multiple lithium industry analysts and brokerage research reports believe that the lithium industry is undergoing a phase of supply-demand rebalancing, and this round of rebound reflects recovery momentum under a temporary supply-demand mismatch. As overseas and domestic lithium mine capacity continues to be released, the supply increment will gradually be absorbed by demand growth and industry structure optimization. The rapid adjustment in lithium salts in September has already reflected expectations of subsequent loosening in advance, which helps the industry return to rationality and consolidate the foundation for healthy medium-to-long-term development. Looking ahead, the lithium price center is expected to stabilize at low levels and gradually improve with demand support.
Expanding Capacity and Extending the Industry Chain
In addition to rising lithium product prices, increased investment income from associated company SQM is another important driver of Tianqi Lithium Corporation's substantial earnings growth in the first three quarters. SQM holds lithium resource-related operations at Chile's Atacama Salt Flat and is an important part of Tianqi Lithium Corporation's overseas resource layout. In 2018, the company spent approximately USD 4.066 billion to become its second-largest shareholder. From 2019 to 2025 and January to June 2026, the investment income recognized from SQM for each period was RMB 403 million, RMB 175 million, RMB 760 million, RMB 5.641 billion, RMB 2.931 billion, negative RMB 885 million, RMB 547 million, and RMB 1.5 billion, respectively.
While focusing on developing overseas resource markets, Tianqi Lithium Corporation's own capacity construction has also been continuously advancing. The confidence for capacity release first comes from the company's lithium resource reserves. As of the end of 2025, the company had laid out approximately 20.58 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in total lithium resources, with resource coverage across three core production regions: China, Australia, and Chile, encompassing both spodumene ore and salt lake brine resource types.
According to the company's 2026 interim report, the Greenbushes spodumene mine in Australia currently has five lithium concentrate processing plants, with a combined built lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 2.14 million tonnes per year. Among them, the Phase III chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant produced its first batch of on-spec products on January 30, 2026, and plans to complete capacity ramp-up within the year. The Jiajika lithium mine in Yajiang, Sichuan, has completed tailings pond filing, land use pre-approval, and site selection approval, and will continue to advance related construction.
In terms of lithium chemical products, the company's six major production bases worldwide have a combined built capacity of approximately 122,600 tonnes per year for lithium chemical products. The Chongqing base's 1,000-tonne-per-year lithium metal and supporting raw materials project is currently steadily advancing capacity ramp-up. The Jiangsu lithium hydroxide base (which can flexibly switch to produce lithium carbonate) has switched its production line from lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the lithium carbonate production line is currently in the capacity ramp-up phase.
It is worth noting that Tianqi Lithium Corporation is extending its industry chain into the midstream and downstream segments of the industry. On one hand, the company is developing retired lithium battery recycling and resource regeneration technologies, establishing a closed-loop industry chain of "resource development - material preparation - recycling and regeneration." On the other hand, the company has taken equity stakes in solid-state battery companies such as Beijing WeLion New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and SES AI Corporation (SES Holdings), positioning itself in next-generation battery technology.
On August 15 of this year, the company also announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Shehong Tianqi signed a "Sunwoda Power Technology Co., Ltd. Capital Increase Agreement" with Sunwoda Power Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sunwoda Power") and its controlling shareholder and actual controller, subscribing to 79.2181 million new shares of Sunwoda Power with RMB 150 million of its own funds. Sunwoda Power is a globally leading comprehensive new energy technology enterprise integrating the production, sales, and research of battery cells, modules, battery management systems (BMS), and battery packs (PACK).
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