Domestic fuel prices are scheduled for a new adjustment window, opening at 24:00 on August 14th. Based on a consensus of institutional views, refined oil product prices are expected to see their fifth reduction this year.
An analyst from ZCE Consulting noted that the international crude oil price fluctuated downward in the early stages due to a brief easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This caused the domestic crude oil change rate within the current pricing cycle to start in negative territory and deepen continuously. However, starting from the fourth working day of the cycle, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East tightened again, and the shipping channel through the Strait of Hormuz remained impassable. This led to a sustained rise in international crude oil prices, narrowing the room for a reduction in the retail price cap for refined oil products. Overall, the domestic reference crude oil change rate remained in negative territory, showing a trend of first widening and then narrowing.
An analyst from Longzhong Information explained that, as of August 12th, the average reference crude oil price within the cycle was $82.14 per barrel, a decrease of 4.90% from the previous cycle. It is estimated that when the adjustment window opens, the corresponding theoretical reduction for refined oil products will be around 210 yuan per ton. Converted to a per-liter price, this is approximately 0.15 yuan. For a 70-liter fuel tank, a private car owner would save about 11 yuan on a full tank. The analyst mentioned that a downward adjustment in this round is a certainty, but the final adjustment magnitude must still be confirmed by official announcements.
So far this year, domestic fuel prices have undergone fifteen rounds of adjustments, with a pattern of "ten increases, four decreases, and one period of no change." Among these, to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the state implemented control measures on refined oil product prices for two consecutive rounds. If this round's adjustment is implemented as expected, the pattern of price adjustments for 2026 will become "ten increases, five decreases, and one period of no change." According to the "ten working days" principle, the next retail adjustment window for refined oil products will open at 24:00 on August 28, 2026.
Looking ahead, on the supply side, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet resumed, and the blockade of Saudi Arabian maritime routes by the Houthi group continues. Supply pressure persists. The supply issue of Middle Eastern crude oil has not been completely resolved, and the global oil market remains in a state of supply shortage. From the demand side, the International Energy Agency has recently lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth. Refinery operating rates in many Asian countries remain at low levels. The only bright spot is that the traditional peak fuel season in the United States continues, providing seasonal support for local demand. However, overall, improvement in the demand side remains slow.
An analyst from JLC Network Technology believes that the market is increasingly skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach an agreement to ease shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, relations between the two countries may enter a stalemate. Without new information emerging, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the coming week.
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