Soybean meal analyst Wang Ruwen from Sublime China Information noted that domestic soybean meal spot prices in October saw a slight month-on-month decline, aligning with previous forecasts. The ample supply in the domestic soybean meal market during October exerted downward pressure on spot prices. Sublime China Information's analysis of market drivers suggests that pressure in the domestic spot market will gradually ease in November, with prices expected to rise month-on-month.
According to Sublime China Information data, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal in October was RMB 2,980 per ton, down RMB 29 per ton (0.96%) from September and RMB 42 per ton (1.39%) year-on-year. Crushing operations at domestic soybean processing plants showed a low-then-high trend in October, while downstream purchasing activity remained subdued, leading to high inventory levels and price declines. Toward the end of the month, market expectations around U.S.-China trade negotiations drove U.S. soybean futures higher, lifting domestic soybean meal spot prices. Sublime China Information reported that 122 surveyed major oil mills processed a total of 8.7632 million tons of soybeans in October, down 935,100 tons from September. The spot basis for soybean meal narrowed to RMB 12 per ton as of October 31, weakening by RMB 25 per ton from October 9.
**Price Drivers for November 2025** **Supply Outlook**: Soybean supply is expected to tighten gradually. Sublime China Information's estimates for soybean arrivals and domestic crushing operations indicate arrivals of 9.49 million tons in November, 7.5 million tons in December, and 5 million tons in January, suggesting a tightening supply trend. While short-term supply remains ample, medium- to long-term supply constraints may support prices.
**International Market**: China has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans. Following the U.S.-China summit, the U.S. government announced that China agreed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end and at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years. However, China's retention of a 10% additional tariff on U.S. soybeans (totaling 13%) has led to significant losses for commercial importers, limiting purchases by foreign and private firms. With no further details on import volumes, market expectations of ample supply have wavered. Slow procurement progress for December-January suggests a potential supply gap in Q1 2026, providing bullish support for domestic markets. In Brazil, irregular rainfall has delayed planting in several regions, with some areas requiring replanting, though the short-term price impact remains neutral.
**Cost Expectations**: Stronger U.S. soybean prices provide cost support for soybean meal. With China resuming purchases, U.S. soybean prices are expected to remain firm until procurement targets are met, translating into bullish momentum for domestic soybean meal spot prices.
In summary, as supply pressures ease in November, cost and supply factors are likely to support soybean meal prices, leading to a month-on-month increase in spot prices.
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