The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, revealing that U.S. job openings fell in June, coming in below market expectations. However, hiring figures rebounded and layoffs remained low, indicating that the overall labor market remains stable. While employment demand has cooled slightly, it has not yet shown significant deterioration.
Data showed that U.S. job openings in June decreased to 7.359 million, down 178,000 from the revised May figure of 7.537 million, and below the 7.45 million that economists surveyed by media had anticipated. The job openings rate fell from 4.5% in May to 4.4%.
By industry, the decline in job openings was concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, wholesale trade, and business services. Notably, the healthcare and social assistance sector saw a reduction of 147,000 openings, which was the primary drag on the overall decline. However, hiring activity by companies improved. Hiring increased by 96,000 in June to 5.348 million, pushing the hiring rate up from 3.3% to 3.4%.
Hiring growth was driven primarily by the healthcare and construction sectors, while the leisure and hospitality sector saw its third consecutive month of decline, falling to the lowest level since early 2025. This dynamic tempered earlier market expectations that the FIFA World Cup would boost labor demand in related industries. Meanwhile, layoffs remained stable. The number of layoffs and discharges in June was essentially flat at 1.766 million, with the layoff rate holding at a low 1.1%, reflecting that companies are still generally inclined to retain their existing workforce.
Analysts suggest that this JOLTS report once again confirms that the U.S. labor market is in a state of "slowing hiring and slowing layoffs." While businesses remain cautious in expanding their hiring, consumer spending continues to show resilience, supporting corporate labor demand. The low level of layoffs also indicates that the labor market has not yet shown significant weakness, which will allow the Federal Reserve to continue focusing its policy on controlling inflation.
The Fed last week held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time, though three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, highlighting growing internal concerns about inflation risks. However, some economists caution against overinterpreting the JOLTS data, as the survey response rate has declined significantly in recent years, potentially affecting its representativeness.
The market is now turning its attention to the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report, due out this Friday. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the U.S. to add approximately 80,000 new nonfarm jobs in July, up from 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. However, there remains a risk of a slight increase in the unemployment rate. A survey from The Conference Board showed that the share of consumers who believe "jobs are plentiful" in July fell to its lowest level since February 2021, reflecting a cooling in the labor market's vibrancy.
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