Spot Gold:
On August 12, the US July inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday, a report seen as a critical variable in determining the Federal Reserve's next policy steps. The market broadly expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to have risen only slightly in July; if the data aligns with forecasts, it could give the Fed more time to monitor the situation on interest rates. However, if inflation shows signs of re-accelerating, the possibility of a rate hike at the September meeting will once again become a focal point.
From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart for gold indicates that prices experienced a technical pullback after surging to around $4,435 per ounce, currently consolidating near the $4,400 level. Short-term moving averages remain upward, but the pace of the rally has slowed, with the RSI indicator retreating from overbought territory, suggesting a cooling in short-term buying momentum. If prices can break decisively above $4,435, the next target could be the psychological $4,500 level. Conversely, a failure to hold above support at $4,380 could trigger a deeper correction, with the next target around $4,310. The short-term direction will largely depend on whether the US inflation data drives further changes in the US dollar and bond yields.
Key levels to watch tonight include resistance at $4,435, $4,465, and $4,512, with support at $4,397, $4,382, and $4,356. For evening trading, the personal suggestion is: aggressive positions can consider buying near $4,397 ± 2, with a more conservative buy near $4,387 ± 2; aggressive sells can be considered near $4,462 ± 2, with a more conservative sell near $4,504 ± 2. A stop-loss of $15 is recommended for all positions, targeting a profit of $30 to $50. The key pivot point for gold is at $4,382 per ounce. The above views are for reference only; allocate positions prudently and strictly manage risk.
WTI Crude Oil:
On Wednesday, August 12, during the Asian session, US crude oil prices experienced a volatile uptick. According to media reports, the US military stated it used a missile to attack a merchant vessel heading to an Iranian port, escalating supply risk concerns and driving international crude oil prices higher. Recent diplomatic messages between the US and Iran have been mixed, with significant differences on core issues, including the navigational conditions of the Strait of Hormuz and related compensation demands. The expectation of a comprehensive agreement being reached in the short term has notably decreased. The oil market is currently maintaining a high-range consolidation, with risks of sharp fluctuations driven by rapid changes in geopolitical news.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, crude oil prices continue to form a series of higher highs, while the MACD indicator's green histogram is contracting, indicating that bullish momentum is dominant. On the 4-hour chart, prices have entered a period of consolidation after a sustained rally. The RSI indicator is trading in the overbought zone but has not yet reached extreme levels, suggesting that buying pressure remains present without signs of overheating. Key resistance levels to watch tonight are $84.5 and $86.5, with support at $81.5 and $79.7. For evening trading, the personal suggestion is: aggressive positions can consider buying near $81.5 ± 0.2, with a more conservative buy near $79.7 ± 0.2; aggressive sells can be considered near $84.5 ± 0.2, with a more conservative sell near $86.3 ± 0.2. A stop-loss of 1.0 point is recommended for all positions, targeting a profit of 2.0 per barrel.
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