A report from China Securities indicates that on the supply side, the upstream breeding segment for white-feathered chickens has ample supply. Key areas of focus include the sustained impact of overseas avian influenza outbreaks on import breeding stock, as well as the effects of domestic issues like duck plague on commercial broiler farming and breeder hen egg-laying performance.
On the demand side, sluggish terminal consumption continues to be a primary factor suppressing chicken product demand and prices, thereby impacting the entire industry chain's profitability. Against the backdrop of expanding domestic demand, the firm anticipates a boost in chicken consumption. With farming costs remaining low, broiler enterprises are expected to see improved profitability and valuation recovery.
Furthermore, the report suggests that as domestic white-feather chicken breeds undergo continuous research, development, and iterative upgrades, they are poised to narrow the efficiency gap with overseas varieties in commercial broiler farming. From a long-term perspective, the market share of domestic breeds is expected to steadily increase.
Key Observations from China Securities:
Broiler Chickens and Chicks: Broiler Prices Test Highs Before Dipping, Chick Prices Rebound from Lows
In June, broiler chicken prices dipped after reaching highs. The average transaction price at the shed was 3.59 yuan per jin. For most of the month, prices remained stable but experienced a sharp, rapid decline after the Dragon Boat Festival, stabilizing at a support level of 3.40 yuan per jin at the shed. This was attributed to poor product sales, with slaughterhouses' inventory levels continuously building until they exceeded their limits, causing a drop in broiler prices.
In June, chick prices rebounded from their lows. The average monthly price for white-feather broiler chicks was 2.40 yuan per chick.
1) In early and mid-June, chick prices mainly trended downward. Primary reasons included: high temperatures impacting chick placements, leading farmers to control density and reduce chick intake; chaotic scheduling by hatcheries, prompting farmers to wait and push for lower prices; low-priced temporary chicks dragging down prices of pre-scheduled orders; and a weak broiler chicken market dragging down the chick market. Under these multiple pressures, the chick market operated weakly, with prices declining successively.
2) In late June, chick prices showed a minor rebound. Key drivers included: reduced supply from small farms, tightening availability of low-priced stock; stable hatching by large farms according to pre-arranged schedules; some producers, previously bearish on the market, had discarded unhatched eggs; rising farmer demand for chicks as prices fell to low levels; a stable broiler market supporting chick prices; and breeder poultry companies, facing losses, actively pushed to raise chick prices. These positive factors fueled a price increase.
Chicken: Chicken Prices Rise
In June, the national average price for white-feather chicken was 7.398 yuan/kg, up 3.04% year-over-year but down 1.88% month-over-month. The average price for chicken products was 8,910 yuan per tonne, up 2.56% year-over-year but down 0.22% month-over-month.
The countries and breeds updated for import breeding stock this month mainly include AA+, Ross 308, Cobb, and Shengnong 901 Plus. According to Mysteel data, AA+/Ross 308 breeds accounted for 50.92% of imports, Cobb for 34.36%, and Shengnong 901 Plus for 14.72%.
Regarding grandparent stock capacity, the average inventory of in-production grandparent stock in June 2026 was 1.6752 million sets, up 14.7% year-over-year and 2.9% month-over-month. The average inventory of reserve grandparent stock was 638,700 sets, down 11.3% year-over-year and 0.5% month-over-month.
For parent stock capacity, in June 2026, sample associations reported an average in-production parent stock inventory of 22.9179 million sets, down 1.1% year-over-year and up 0.9% month-over-month. The average inventory of reserve parent stock was 16.5806 million sets, up 6.5% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.
The price for parent stock chicks in June was 54.55 yuan per set, with the latest quotation for the 26th week of 2026 at 54.08 yuan per set.
Overall, profitability in the chick and broiler farming segments declined month-over-month. In June, hatcheries recorded a profit of -0.06 yuan per chick, a decrease from the previous month. Broiler farming profitability was -0.12 yuan per chick, a sharp decline month-over-month.
Risk Warning: A faster-than-expected recovery in overseas grandparent stock imports, outbreaks of domestic poultry diseases like avian influenza, a decline in chicken prices, major food safety incidents, and systematic macroeconomic risks.
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