Tesla: After Declining By -30.84% From It's Peak, The Stock Could Fall By Another -30%

Seeking Alpha2022-02-16

SummaryTSLA has dropped by -30% from its peak yet its still trading at a 153.57 P/E and 255.19x FCF which are very lofty valuations.TSLA isn't a technology company as once again 100% of its gross ...

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Comments

Moonshot
2022-02-16
Moonshot
Well said. The EV trend will continue at least in the next 5 to 10 years and until the hype dies down, we can expect TSLA shares prices to be frothy with irrational valuation. One word of advice, surf the trend with caution and capture the excess value that comes with the risk.
JTC
2022-02-16
JTC
It OK be patient
TradeMore
2022-02-16
TradeMore
Ok
flyuphigh
2022-02-16
flyuphigh
🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋
Jazling
2022-02-16
Jazling
Wow

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Mr. Musk decided to allocate his time and resources to take on the automobile industry and make the shift to electric. When you think about the barriers of entry, there may not have been a tougher industry to break into starting from the ground up. Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Toyota (TM), and Honda (HMC) dominated the U.S car market while having a tremendous amount of infrastructure and spending capacity in place. Tesla's (TSLA) first car model was the Roadster sports car which debuted in 2009 and was followed by the Model S in 2012. In 2012TSLAspent $383.2 million on its cost of revenue and $424.4 million on its operating expenses compared to F spending $118.32 billion on its cost of revenue and $9.04 billion on its operating expenses. Over the years, auto manufacturers have come and gone due to market factors, and the competition such as F and GM had vast economies of scale due to their size. TSLA did what many thought was impossible, underfunded, and against all odds, TSLA is the pinnacle within the EV market and generated $53.82 billion of revenue and $5.64 billion of net income in 2021. Over the past 9 years, TSLA has increased its revenue by 129.23x and went from losing -$396.2 million to profit over $5 billion. TSLA's success can't be denied, but its business has become widely successful that doesn't mean its stock price is accurately valued.Great companies can have mispriced stocks, and I feel there is still a tremendous amount of hype around TSLA's stock. Many investors get caught up in the story and disregard the financials or how the stock is being valued. There isn't a single bad thing to say about TSLA as a company. They have done the impossible, and not many people or companies will ever achieve these types of accomplishments. While the business is alive and well, TSLA's stock is still overvalued as it continues to be valued as a technology company without having the technology company margins or products. What may shock you is that I am currently a shareholder of TSLA as my wife purchased shares, so please save the comments about me being short. I have been a fan of Elon for years, and what has been accomplished is remarkable, but that doesn't change the fact that TSLA is still overvalued. Even though I am a shareholder, I am not changing my view because the numbers don't justify the $916.31 billion market cap.TeslaTesla isn't a technology or a software company, their a successful automobile company and there is nothing wrong with thatStill, to this day people are classifying TSLA as a technology company. TSLA has one of the largest cult followings, and rightfully so, they make a fantastic product, but details matter when it comes to investing. I wish everyone who makes arguments about TSLA being a technology company would stop using what-ifs from a potential future story and stick to the facts which are spelled out in every quarterly report or TSLA's annual 10-K. 2021 was a record year for revenue and profit for TSLA, and it clearly indicates TSLA is an automobile company without a shadow of a doubt.In 2021 TSLA generated $53.82 billion in revenue:Automotive Sales $44.125 BillionAutomotive Regulatory Credits $1.465 BillionAutomotive Leasing $1.642 BillionEnergy Generation and Storage $2.79 BillionServices and Other $3.802 BillionIn 2021 which was a record year, 87.75% of TSLA's revenue came from their automotive segment. No matter what story you want to tell yourself about TSLA's future, today, TSLA is a pure automobile company, and I can prove it. The remaining 12.26% of TSLA's revenue was comprised of Energy Generation and Storage, and their Services and Other lines of business didn't make a single dollar in profit. The cost to generate the $2.79 billion from Energy Generation and Storage was $2.92 billion, and this segment lost -$129 million in 2021. The cost to generate the $3.80 billion of revenue from Services and Other was $3.91 billion, and this segment lost -$104 million in 2021. Overall the $6.59 billion in revenue generated outside of the automobile business didn't drive a single penny to the bottom line, and TSLA continues to lose money each year from these businesses. TSLA isn't an energy company, TSLA isn't a technology company, they are an automobile company, and there is nothing wrong with that. TSLA is a successful automobile company, and they have a lot to be proud of.TeslaTSLA generated $13.61 billion in gross profit and $5.64 billion in net income. Across TSLA's gross profit and net income, every penny was derived from automobiles. TSLA's automotive sales without factoring in regulatory credits or Leasing accounted for 81.98% of their total revenue, 80.06% of their cost of revenue, and 86.07% of their gross profit. There is no evidence of TSLA being a technology company within their actual numbers, so why do people still try to value TSLA as a technology company? TSLA has a gross profit margin of 25.28%, which doesn't indicate a moat around their business by many accounts. When you look at true technology companies, their gross profit margins are above 50%:Alphabet(GOOGL) 56.9%Meta Platforms(FB) 80.8%Salesforce(CRM) 74%Workday(WDAY) 72.4%Microsoft(MSFT) 68.8%Zoom Video(ZM) 72.8%Oracle(ORCL) 80%The narrative around what type of company TSLA is should change. TSLA is nothing like any of the companies I used in my example. TSLA makes physical automobiles, and physical automobiles make up 87.75% of TSLA's revenue, 100% of the gross profit, and 100% of their net income. Until TSLA creates a new revenue segment, diversifies its revenue away from automobiles, and generates a significant amount of gross profit and net income from other business segments, they are an automobile company. As an automobile company, TSLA is grossly overvalued, and I believe there is more downside to come.Tesla's valuation is still in the nosebleed section and I think more pain is coming.I am going to compare TSLA to FB, Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), and the results may surprise you. TSLA has a market cap of $888.82 billion, so I am using FB, which now has a market cap of $597.6 billion as my technology company and F and VWAGY as my automobile companies. Prior to going through the valuation metrics, I use I want to give a quick framework of each company:TSLA$888.82 billion Market Cap$53.82 billion revenue$5.52 billion net income$3.48 billion Free Cash Flow ((FCF))FB$597.6 billion Market Cap$117.93 billion revenue$39.37 billion net income$39.12 billion FCFVWAGY$113.4 billion market cap$294.18 billion revenue$21.27 billion net income$28.68 billion FCFF$70.27 billion market cap$136.34 billion revenue$17.91 billion net income$9.56 billion FCFTSLA is trading at a 15.75x P/S ratio compared to FB's 5.24x, VWAGY's 0.21x, and F's 1.86x. TSLA is trading well above some of the large auto manufacturers and significantly above FB on its P/S ratio.Steven FiorilloThe market has also given TSLA a 153.57 P/E ratio compared to 15.69 for FB, 4.42 for VWAGY, and 5.72 for F. 153.57x seems very steep, and it's going to look much steeper after the next metric.Steven FiorilloTSLA trades at 255.19x its FCF compared to FB's 15.28x multiple. On the auto side, VWAGY trades at a 3.95x FCF multiple while F trades at a multiple of 7.35x.Steven FiorilloTSLA also trades at the largest equity to market cap ratio at 28.14x compared to 4.79x for FB, 0.69x for VWAGY, and 1.45x for F.Steven FiorilloPurely from a valuation standpoint TSLA is overvalued. I know what the rebuttal will be; you're not considering growth. I plan to look at their growth and margins next to provide all of the facts and not just cherry-pick certain aspects of data. Since everyone wants to classify TSLA as a technology company to fit their narrative, let's go ahead and view the data as if they were a technology company since that's how Mr. Market is valuing them. TSLA’s market cap is $291.21 billion (48.73%) larger than FB’s yet FB generated 119.11% ($64.11 billion) more in revenue, 613.35% ($33.85 billion) more in net income and 1,023% ($35.63 billion) more in FCF than TSLA did in 2021. TSLA's current valuation is broken as it trades at 255.19x FCF compared to FB's 15.28x. TSLA's growth is impressive, but this is an automobile company, not a software company with immense margins.One of the most important valuation metrics is market cap to FCF multiple, yet not many people look through the numbers this deeply. FCF represents a company's cash after accounting for cash outflows to support operations. I like to use this metric overlooking at net income because FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses and includes spending on equipment and assets. Companies also utilize FCF to pay back debt, reinvest in the business, pay dividends, buy back shares, and make acquisitions from. Remember, when you buy shares of TSLA; you're buying an equity position in the company at the end of the day. The multiple for FCF is a critical aspect to take into consideration. While TSLA has been an incredible growth story, it generated $3.48 billion in FCF in 2021. Today TSLA's market cap is $775.42 billion larger than VWAGY and $818.54 billion larger than F, yet VWAGY has generated $25.2 billion more in FCF, and F generated $6.08 billion more in FCF in 2021 than TSLA did. The numbers don't make sense, and that large of a multiple for TSLA's growth is overblown considering the FCF generated from their business.Steven FiorilloWhile TSLA's margins aren't in the same ballpark as technology companies, they are slightly above VWAGY's. F's profit margin is deceptive due to the profit from Rivian (RIVN). TSLA generated $53.82 billion in revenue and $13.61 billion in gross profit for a gross profit margin of 25.28%. VWAGY generated $294.18 billion in revenue and $55.79 billion in gross profit for a gross profit margin of 28.96%. TSLA generated $5.52 billion in net income for a profit margin of 10.25%, while VWAGY generated $21.27 billion in net income for a profit margin of 7.23%. Many people think TSLA is so much more profitable than the traditional auto companies, but they aren't. TSLA squeezes out an extra 6.31% in gross profit margin and 3.02% in the actual profit margin compared to VWAGY. TSLA generates less revenue, net income, and FCF than VWAGY and has only slightly better margins, yet the market cap is $775.42 billion larger. For TSLA to have $775.42 billion in the additional market cap I would expect their margins to be vastly superior to VWAGY, but they're not. A 3.02% larger profit margin could become a big deal in the future, but until TSLA is generating hundreds of billions more in revenue, it shouldn't impact the valuation by much.TSLA's market cap isn't even validated by its growth. At the close of 2016, TSLA generated $7 billion in revenue. Over the past 5 years, its revenue has grown by 668.89% ($46.82 billion) to $53.82 billion. Don't misinterpret what I am saying, TSLA's growth is impressive, and they have done something a handful of companies would be able to accomplish. They entered a market with tremendous barriers of entry and stole market share away from industry titans with vastly superior resources. I don't know how many companies would be able to accomplish this, and it's impressive. Just because it's an astonishing accomplishment doesn't mean that its growth story validates the market cap. FB grew its revenue by 326.69% over the same period, and while on a percentage basis, TSLA's revenue grew by more than double, FB grew its revenue by $90.29 billion, which is almost double the amount of revenue TSLA grew by. How about this, VWAGY went from $195.79 billion to $294.18 billion of revenue over the same period, growing by 50.26% or $98.4 billion. Over the same period, VWAGY grew its revenue by more than double TSLA's, it generates more than 8x the FCF and trades at a P/E of 4.42x and an FCF multiple of 11.83x compared to TSLA's 153.57x for P/E and 255.19x FCF. TSLA's growth story is impressive, but it doesn't support the market cap.I could be incorrect and there are risks to my thesisSo far I have been incorrect the entire time regarding TSLA and everyone who has been invested has been correct. Time and time again TSLA has risen to the challenge and proved the naysayers wrong. My only quip with TSLA has been the valuation but that hasn't mattered to the market. Over the past couple of years, no matter what the numbers looked like, TSLA just went higher. TSLA is no longer a novelty company as they are generating over $50 billion in revenue and $5 billion in net income.The risk to my thesis is that TSLA goes back up and you miss out on gains. I want to be very clear once again, I am not short and I don't believe in shorting stocks. It's just like being at the craps table, I never bet the don't, it's just bad karma. Over the years TSLA has generated incredible gains for its investors while destroying short-sellers. TSLA will forever be one of the stocks that I don't understand because while it's a great company the valuation has never made much sense.TSLA could easily branch out into new business segments and build new revenue streams. TSLA has the expertise and resources to expand and eventually make the valuation look attractive. It's hard to bet against Elon Musk because everything he touches turns to gold and he makes the impossible possible. It wouldn't surprise me if shares or TSLA go up, if Elon makes an acquisition, or if he expands into another business segment. While I don't believe the valuation is supported, everything TSLA has done has gotten them here, proving me incorrect, and that could continue to occur.ConclusionEven though I am a shareholder of TSLA, my views on the company being overvalued haven't changed. None of the metrics from valuation to growth to margins support its overinflated market cap. TSLA isn't a technology company as 100% of their gross profit, and net income is generated from their automotive segment. TSLA has been an exciting story to watch as Elon Musk proved all the skeptics wrong. He went into an industry with some of the largest barriers of entry and has taken market share away from companies such as F, GM, and VWAGY. TSLA has generated phenomenal growth and is now generating billions in profits. The problem is the valuation, and none of the metrics support its market cap. Even buying shares down -30% from their peak, you're still paying a P/E of 153.57 and a 255.19x multiple on TSLA's FCF. TSLA is a great company but not a great stock, and I wouldn't be surprised if shares tumble another 50% from here. The key goals of any business are to generate cash from operations which translates into FCF after Capex and profits. TSLA may always be put on a pedestal in the auto industry, so even if it always has a larger valuation, there is no reason why it should be valued more than FB. A decline of -32.76% would put it at FB's current valuation, and if the market continues to rerate companies, TSLA could find itself somewhere between FB and VWAGY. Shares of TSLA could mistify me once again and appreciate in value, but I see them declining in the future.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9095768079,"gmtCreate":1644996602951,"gmtModify":1676533984784,"author":{"id":"4087182159149440","authorId":"4087182159149440","name":"Moonshot","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Well said.&nbsp;The EV trend will continue at least in the next 5 to 10 years and until the hype dies down, we can expect&nbsp;TSLA shares prices to&nbsp;be frothy with irrational valuation. One word of advice, surf the trend with caution and capture the excess value that comes with the risk.","listText":"Well said.&nbsp;The EV trend will continue at least in the next 5 to 10 years and until the hype dies down, we can expect&nbsp;TSLA shares prices to&nbsp;be frothy with irrational valuation. One word of advice, surf the trend with caution and capture the excess value that comes with the risk.","text":"Well said. The EV trend will continue at least in the next 5 to 10 years and until the hype dies down, we can expect TSLA shares prices to be frothy with irrational valuation. One word of advice, surf the trend with caution and capture the excess value that comes with the risk.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095768079","repostId":1159421428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095783894,"gmtCreate":1644991870206,"gmtModify":1676533984415,"author":{"id":"4101201374267140","authorId":"4101201374267140","name":"JTC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754a98e4afa81145de009d1bb1448a48","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"It OK be patient&nbsp;","listText":"It OK be patient&nbsp;","text":"It OK be patient","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095783894","repostId":1159421428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095735801,"gmtCreate":1644987115089,"gmtModify":1676533983946,"author":{"id":"4097720712211120","authorId":"4097720712211120","name":"TradeMore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976c10f5e71e9a3b002205015f764d44","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095735801","repostId":1159421428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095735330,"gmtCreate":1644987044348,"gmtModify":1676533983946,"author":{"id":"3567900334449295","authorId":"3567900334449295","name":"flyuphigh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5c25ecda1f89ac01158a7158e5ac2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋","listText":"🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋","text":"🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋🔋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095735330","repostId":1159421428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095736763,"gmtCreate":1644986833572,"gmtModify":1676533983914,"author":{"id":"3566821013640470","authorId":"3566821013640470","name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095736763","repostId":1159421428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":83,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1159421428"}