Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in the first four months of this year, production and supply maintained steady growth, market sales continued to expand, overall employment and prices remained stable, new growth drivers strengthened, and high-quality development progressed with new and improved characteristics. China has effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macroeconomic policies, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby maintaining a stable and progressive development trend in the national economy.
Capable of Addressing Risks and Challenges "While some indicators experienced slower growth in April, such fluctuations are normal within a monthly context. Looking at cumulative growth rates and certain structural indicators, China's economy remains fundamentally stable," stated Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy. In the January-April period, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size and the service industry production index grew by 5.6% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively. Total goods imports and exports increased by 14.9%, while service retail sales rose by 5.6%. By the end of April, foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.4 trillion, the urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, energy supply steadily increased, and basic living standards and security in development were well ensured.
Wang Guanhua emphasized that China is an economy of massive scale, and assessing its performance requires a focus on the broader trend. Years of development have endowed China with a more substantial material and technological foundation, a more resilient industrial system, and a vast domestic demand market, enhancing its capacity to withstand pressure and maneuver. These factors reflect the solid foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential of the Chinese economy, providing the confidence and assurance for continued stable economic performance in the next phase.
Stable employment and prices further underscore the inherent logic of economic stability. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Chief Economist, and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, noted that the nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2% in April, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable employment conditions. Regarding prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.2% year-on-year in April, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from March, maintaining a moderate upward trend. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 1.2%, remaining generally stable.
The combined effects of macroeconomic policies will continue to safeguard economic operations. Wang Guanhua stated that the Central Political Bureau meeting held at the end of April provided comprehensive guidance for the next phase of economic work, and various regions and departments are accelerating implementation and enhancing policy coordination. Overall, China possesses a rich toolkit of macroeconomic policies with ample means and space for cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments. The precision and effectiveness of policy implementation are continuously improving, equipping the country with the conditions and capability to address risks and challenges.
Wang Guanhua acknowledged that new situations and persistent issues remain in the current economic operations. The next step involves fully utilizing macroeconomic policies with targeted and precise measures to enhance the endogenous driving forces of economic development.
High-Quality Development Advances with New and Improved Characteristics In the first four months, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size grew by 12.6% year-on-year, continuing its rapid expansion. The penetration of the digital economy accelerated, with the value-added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 14%. Driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its enhanced industrial spillover effects, the output of robot reducers and industrial robots grew by 73.3% and 25.7%, respectively, in the first four months.
"The cultivation and expansion of new growth drivers and advantages have created space and accumulated momentum for high-quality development," Wang Guanhua remarked. In the first four months, the equipment manufacturing sector accounted for 35.7% of the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size, contributing over half of the growth in this category. On a monthly basis, its growth rate has accelerated, and its contribution has increased, playing a crucial stabilizing role. The digital economy and artificial intelligence demonstrate strong spillover and driving effects, not only directly stimulating investment in sectors like electronics, computing power construction, and servers but also promoting synergistic growth in industries such as chemicals and power.
Similar trends are evident in consumption and investment. The consumer market is expanding from goods to services and upgrading from meeting basic needs to pursuing quality experiences. Emerging sectors like high-end equipment, green energy, and smart manufacturing continue to see investment and production expansion.
The growing demand for high-quality living standards among residents, coupled with strong demand for cultural, tourism, and health services, is increasingly supporting consumption. In the first four months, service retail sales grew by 5.6% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than in the first quarter. Trends like "cultural tourism fever" and "sports event fever" have become new highlights in service consumption development. New consumption models such as online, digital, and green consumption are developing rapidly, with online retail sales of goods and services growing by 6.6% year-on-year in the first four months. Digital service consumption scenarios continue to expand, with retail sales in communication and information services increasing by over 10% year-on-year.
Regarding investment, Fu Linghui noted that while overall investment volume has decreased, driven by factors like innovation leadership, new growth momentum, and strengthened livelihood safeguards, investment in key sectors maintained rapid growth, and the investment structure optimized, laying a foundation for medium- to long-term economic development. In the first four months, investment in information transmission grew by 29.2%, investment in water transport and air transport increased by 28.4% and 27.3%, respectively, and investment in aircraft manufacturing rose by 20.9%.
Solid Foundation for Maintaining Price Stability In the first four months, the Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from a 0.6% year-on-year decline in the first quarter to a 0.2% increase, marking the first positive cumulative growth since 2023. In April alone, the PPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, expanding by 2.3 percentage points from March, and increased by 1.7% month-on-month, up 0.7 percentage points, maintaining a month-on-month upward trend for seven consecutive months.
"The recovery in industrial product prices results from multiple factors," Wang Guanhua explained. First, the impact of international input factors has become more apparent. In April, fluctuating international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Prices in the extraction of petroleum and natural gas rose by 28.6% year-on-year, prices in the processing of petroleum, coal, and other fuels increased by 14.2%, and prices in the raw chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing sector rose by 8.9%. Second, industrial structure optimization and upgrading have generated a driving effect. The pace of high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in manufacturing has accelerated, with artificial intelligence deeply integrated across various fields. Rapid growth in computing power demand has driven price recoveries in electronics, non-ferrous metals, basic components, and other sectors. In April, prices in optical fiber manufacturing surged by 115.9% year-on-year, while prices in electronic specialty materials manufacturing and external storage devices and components increased by 20% and 22.4%, respectively. Prices in the smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals rose by 22.5%. The advancement of green and low-carbon transformation has increased market demand in areas like energy conservation, environmental protection, and green materials, driving year-on-year price increases of 6.8% and 2.8% in biomass fuel processing and comprehensive utilization of waste resources, respectively.
Furthermore, the deepening advancement of a unified national market and the ongoing effectiveness of capacity governance and comprehensive rectification in key industries to curb "internal competition" have gradually improved supply-demand relations in some sectors, leading to stabilized and rebounding prices. In April, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing rose by 4.5% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, while the year-on-year decline in automobile manufacturing prices narrowed compared to March.
Wang Guanhua stated that the recovery in industrial product prices positively impacts corporate profit expectations. However, it is important to note that this price recovery is currently uneven, with relatively noticeable increases in upstream production materials prices. Attention must be paid to the potential cost impacts on midstream and downstream enterprises. Looking ahead, numerous external uncertainties and unpredictable factors remain, and the trajectory of international commodity prices is still uncertain. The effects on domestic industrial product prices and corporate production operations require further observation and assessment.
Regarding the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on domestic consumer prices, Wang Guanhua noted that in April, China's consumer prices maintained a moderate upward trend. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on domestic consumer prices is limited, controllable, and exhibits a relatively clear structural characteristic. In the next phase, fluctuations in international energy prices will inevitably exert some influence on domestic prices. However, China has ample supply of goods and services, strong foundational energy security, stable and reliable industrial and supply chains, a relatively smooth circulation system, and continuous effectiveness of measures to ensure supply and price stability for essential livelihood commodities and energy resources. The foundation for maintaining price stability remains unchanged.
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