“非农”跳水会吓退美联储吗?

兴业研究2021-09-05

北京时间9月3日晚，美国劳工部公布8月非农就业数据，8月非农就业人口增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。事件：8月非农就业大幅不及预期北京时间9月3日晚，美国劳工部公布8月非农就业数据，8月非农就业人口增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。失业率5.2%与市场预期持平，略低于前值5.4%。平均时薪同比上涨...

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Schemppho
2021-09-05
Schemppho
Okay
hhyw
2021-09-05
hhyw
世界上最大的謊言是統計數據???
SP2021
2021-09-05
SP2021
Zan
- ming_5868:
  [微笑]

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Plan)”下发给州和地方政府的剩余资金(大约3500亿美元)继续发放补充失业救济。而目前约有1100万人仍在申领失业救济。这意味着如果全额动用3500亿美元且继续维持每周300美元的救济标准，尚可以继续维持约半年时间。不过目前尚不清楚各州是否会响应耶伦的号召，在6、7月已经有26个州停发额外失业救济，以推动失业者重返劳动力市场。因此，美联储有理由继续观察9月、10月的非农数据是否反映出劳动力市场结构的改善。\n单月数据的恶化具有偶然性，不会立刻动摇美联储年内实施Taper的计划。从劳动力市场全局看，目前复苏势头依然良好，比2013年更加强劲。由于8月数据未达到多位官员提出的新增就业80万人的Taper触发条件，美联储在9月继续按兵不动的几率较大，或在11月正式宣布、12月实施Taper。美元指数面临阶段性回落压力，人民币再度迎来购汇窗口期。美元指数走弱、Taper延至9月后的预期支撑商品价格和通胀预期，短线利好黄金。第四季度中长期美债发行量激增，叠加通胀预期持稳和年内Taper预期仍存，美债长端收益率有望延续反弹。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":814615381,"gmtCreate":1630812057143,"gmtModify":1676530399211,"author":{"id":"3582187509385859","authorId":"3582187509385859","name":"Schemppho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26b5f2e6c6bcff9096e58b427ea24ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582187509385859","authorIdStr":"3582187509385859"},"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814615381","repostId":1159579630,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":814633009,"gmtCreate":1630810857101,"gmtModify":1676530398911,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"世界上最大的謊言是統計數據???","listText":"世界上最大的謊言是統計數據???","text":"世界上最大的謊言是統計數據???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814633009","repostId":1159579630,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814829562,"gmtCreate":1630807304056,"gmtModify":1676530397446,"author":{"id":"3575508103712478","authorId":"3575508103712478","name":"SP2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b05cedc2864e9c2d8796bb319f4bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575508103712478","authorIdStr":"3575508103712478"},"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814829562","repostId":1159579630,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5757313,"gmtCreate":1630808981990,"gmtModify":1663233404949,"authorId":3532417483771819,"author":{"id":3532417483771819,"idStr":"3532417483771819","authorId":3532417483771819,"name":"ming_5868","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d89076d8bfa575b8d66e7aae75a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":814829562,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":50,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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