The baijiu industry is facing an exceptionally harsh winter in 2025, with flagship products like Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (600519.SH) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. (000858.SZ) experiencing price declines.
On December 12, data from the liquor market monitoring platform "Today's Liquor Price" showed that the wholesale reference prices for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai (loose bottles and original cases) had fallen to 1,485 yuan and 1,495 yuan, respectively—both below the suggested retail price of 1,499 yuan, marking a historic low.
Meanwhile, Wuliangye is reportedly adjusting prices for its 52-degree 500ml Eighth Generation product, offering subsidies to bring the effective ex-factory price down to 900 yuan per bottle from the official 1,019 yuan.
These price movements reflect broader challenges in the baijiu sector. Financial reports from major producers reveal declining revenues and profits, with industry-wide losses becoming the norm.
**Moutai and Wuliangye’s Price Struggles** Feitian Moutai, a core product for Kweichow Moutai, has long been considered a barometer for the premium baijiu market. Historically, its price remained above 2,600 yuan, peaking at 3,200 yuan (loose bottles) and 3,800 yuan (original cases) in 2021. However, prices have steadily declined since 2022, with the latest drop below the suggested retail price sparking market concerns.
A Moutai distributor in Guiyang noted that some dealers are selling at 1,450 yuan due to cash flow pressures, while Beijing-based distributors report selling at a loss as wholesale prices have fallen below procurement costs. E-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo even list Feitian Moutai at 1,399 yuan for group purchases.
Analysts suggest that Moutai’s price drop signals weakening demand and high channel inventory, eroding its "hard currency" status. Wuliangye’s subsidy strategy, meanwhile, highlights its struggle with declining sales and price stability.
**Capital Market Pressures** Both Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announced mid-term dividend plans to reassure investors. Moutai will distribute 30 billion yuan (23.957 yuan per share), while Wuliangye plans a 10 billion yuan payout (25.78 yuan per 10 shares).
Experts argue that while dividends provide short-term stability, they cannot resolve underlying issues like excess inventory or sluggish consumption.
**Industry-Wide Slowdown** Most major baijiu producers reported revenue and profit declines in Q3 2025. Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ), and Yanghe Brewery (002304.SZ) saw significant drops, while Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu (600809.SH) managed slight growth.
Analysts predict a prolonged downturn, with recovery unlikely before 2026 Q2 or even 2028, given high inventory levels and reduced demand for premium baijiu in business and gifting scenarios.
**Future Outlook** The industry must shift from price-driven competition to value creation, focusing on product quality, cultural narratives, and new consumption scenarios. Companies that adapt to evolving consumer preferences—emphasizing experience over speculation—will likely emerge stronger from this cycle.
However, with structural challenges persisting, a true turnaround may still be years away.
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