Stimulated by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the price of Feitian Moutai has seen some increase. However, the current price hike is limited to Moutai alone, as Wuliangye and other high-end baijiu quotations have remained largely unchanged, with many brands resorting to promotions in exchange for sales volume. As the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season approaches, is the baijiu market poised for a recovery?
According to data from the third-party platform "Today's Liquor Price," during the recent week from September 14 to 21, the wholesale price of 26-year Feitian Moutai fluctuated from 1,745 yuan up to 1,755 yuan before retreating to 1,740 yuan. Compared with the "one-way decline" trend seen during the same period last year, Moutai's price has remained relatively stable ahead of this year's dual holidays.
On the final weekend before the holiday, reporters visited multiple liquor stores and supermarkets in Shanghai, discovering that Feitian Moutai prices had risen due to holiday demand, while numerous baijiu products in the 100-500 yuan price range were competing for peak season demand through promotional offers. "Prices have already gone up," said a Shanghai liquor store owner, noting that Feitian Moutai at his shop is now quoted at 1,950 yuan per bottle. He admitted the increase is driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, as regular quotes are typically only 1,700-1,800 yuan.
Compared with independent retailers, Moutai franchise stores offer more competitive pricing, with quotes generally ranging from 1,630 yuan to 1,800 yuan per bottle, and the holiday-driven price increase falling between 30 and 50 yuan. However, this is not a broad-based rally across the baijiu industry. Currently, only Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. has raised prices, while Wuliangye and other premium baijiu brands have seen no change in their quotations, and some are even using promotions to drive sales.
Reporters observed that several supermarkets have prominently displayed dual-bottle baijiu gift boxes in core areas, primarily concentrated in the 100 yuan, 300 yuan, and 500 yuan price tiers, offering discounts of around 15 percent. Among the promotions, Moutai Daqu 1980s has been reduced from 258 yuan to 228 yuan, Yanghe Tianzhilan (52 percent ABV, 500ml) from 369 yuan to 329 yuan, and Jiannanchun Shuijingjian from 488 yuan to 429 yuan, with discount levels similar to last year's Mid-Autumn Festival. Still, most consumers are merely browsing without making actual purchases.
A supermarket liquor salesperson explained that consumers preparing for Mid-Autumn gatherings most frequently inquire about the 300 yuan price range, while the best-moving products are those around 100 yuan. For example, Yanghe Hai Zhilan, recently reduced from 168 yuan to 139 yuan, is selling well. "Consumers are very price-conscious about value," the salesperson added.
Recent Mid-Autumn sales research from multiple brokerages also reflects the divergence within the baijiu market. Some institutions note that most liquor companies have refrained from imposing mandatory payment recovery targets on distributors during the dual-holiday peak season, shifting their assessment focus from payment collection to sell-through and bottle opening rates. Distributors are also generally unwilling to blindly chase volume, as fee subsidies struggle to cover inventory and capital costs.
Under this "promotions for sales" approach, terminal inventories for many baijiu brands have already fallen to below two months, a relatively low level, and industry-wide inventory is expected to decline further after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Performance across different price segments is notably divergent. Among them, high-end baijiu led by Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye is benefiting from rigid gift-giving demand with slight year-on-year improvements in sell-through, while sub-premium baijiu in the 300-800 yuan range faces significant pressure due to consumption downgrades and weak business scenarios, with some demand shifting down to the 100-300 yuan price bracket.
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